tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2611021408437270881.post9086546056094014457..comments2023-10-26T00:43:12.789-07:00Comments on Skeptical CPA: The Coming DepressionIndependent Accountanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07800220849565219709noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2611021408437270881.post-67660344789464921442008-12-29T22:13:00.000-08:002008-12-29T22:13:00.000-08:00Hyperinflation is from what I hear defined as a 50...Hyperinflation is from what I hear defined as a 50% m/m increase in prices (I do not judge inflation as an increase in price!). I don't think we will see hyperinflation but i can easy see 25% yoy inflation after this short term deflationary stuff passes. Im still gonna be long the dollar for the next 6 months. There is just so much destruction of wealth! its pretty incredible.GS751https://www.blogger.com/profile/12104712741442133837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2611021408437270881.post-32216789672479607742008-12-25T07:22:00.000-08:002008-12-25T07:22:00.000-08:00BS:There is a Chinese curse, "May you live in inte...BS:<BR/>There is a Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times". We do.Independent Accountanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07800220849565219709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2611021408437270881.post-65859484971737711982008-12-25T05:59:00.000-08:002008-12-25T05:59:00.000-08:00next year will be interesting!happy holidays!ho ho...next year will be interesting!<BR/><BR/>happy holidays!<BR/><BR/>ho ho ho!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2611021408437270881.post-51559144628666770712008-12-25T05:04:00.000-08:002008-12-25T05:04:00.000-08:00«If the world becomes more equal more quickly than...«<I>If the world becomes more equal more quickly than it become richer, then living standards in rich countries must decline. If the world were suddenly to achieve equal income levels between countries, without a significant increase in output, U.S. living standards would fall by over three quarters. ... </I>»<BR/><BR/>This argument seems to be thoroughly idiotic as it is based on a ridiculous confusion between nominal prices and living standards.<BR/><BR/>Living standards are a measure of the real availability of goods and services, and that depends on accumulated capital and productivity. In other words <B>average</B> living standards depend mostly on value added, which does not depend on international competition, except as to access to internationally traded resource inputs.<BR/><BR/>As to nominal prices, of course there would equalization of the prices of *tradeable* (directly or directly) goods and services.<BR/><BR/>In particular wages in tradeable-producing industries should equalize with those abroad, where there is a huge labor surplus, and thus come down a lot (and prices in tradeable goods and services too would go down a lot). Wages in industries producing non-tradeables would also come down significantly, because there would be increased competition for jobs. Sure, prices of goods would also also go down a lot, so the fall in living standards would be less than the fall in wages, but there would still be *some* fall, but not due to equalization, but to the reduction in the capital/worker ratio in the first world, making capital relatively scarcer.<BR/><BR/>The winners would be the first world owners of businesses and capital, as third world countries have a lot less capital per worker than first world ones, and a lot of capital has indeed been flowing out of first wold countries to third world ones.<BR/><BR/>So living standards for <B>most workers</B> in the first world will indeed drop, but not as much as the article suspects, and not because of equalization, but because a larger chunk of the same or even higher value added produced in the first world will go to owners of businesses and capital in the first world, or owners of input resources wherever they be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2611021408437270881.post-58589033047283420042008-12-25T01:38:00.000-08:002008-12-25T01:38:00.000-08:00Merry Christmas IA!Merry Christmas IA!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2611021408437270881.post-50904505212399180702008-12-24T22:04:00.000-08:002008-12-24T22:04:00.000-08:00Junior:What do you think will happen? Do you expe...Junior:<BR/>What do you think will happen? Do you expect a 1922-23 German style hyperinflation? It is possible if Zimbabwe Ben keeps printing money at the rate of the last 12 weeks. What do you think has happened in the US since 1973? I estimate American living standards have fallen about 35-40% since they peaked in 1973. Nixon closed the gold window in 1971. Coincidence? I don't think so. You are welcome to the lead to WCV. He's a character. He just started the Chris Cox body count.Independent Accountanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07800220849565219709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2611021408437270881.post-77390195530582591742008-12-24T21:51:00.000-08:002008-12-24T21:51:00.000-08:00Your version of the picture is almost more frighte...Your version of the picture is almost more frightening than mine. <BR/><BR/>Will be interesting to see December's numbers and what happens after 1/20.<BR/><BR/>thank you for WC Varones. Perfect.<BR/><BR/>~ AdrienneJr Deputy Accountanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12886649539758133191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2611021408437270881.post-24782012824952596622008-12-24T18:47:00.000-08:002008-12-24T18:47:00.000-08:00I agree that material standards in the US will lik...I agree that material standards in the US will likely decline... not sustainable.<BR/><BR/>If we have less material goods must we be depressed?<BR/><BR/>No macro measures on the emotional/spiritual state?<BR/><BR/>No measure --- no value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com