Monday, December 22, 2008

AAA Garbage

"In the past month, there has been a big selloff in a corner of the mortgage-bond market that investors once thought impregnable: triple A. ... The most troubling change has been a wave of selling in triple-A prime mortgages. ... Leland Abrams, a trader at a Florida broker dealer, says his firm has bought prime triple-A mortgage bonds for about 30 cents on the dollar. Similar bonds traded for about 70 cents a few months ago", Scott Patterson at the WSJ, 9 December 2008.

"In a sign of how quickly the global crisis has reversed Russia's economic fortunes, Standard & Poor's cut the country's debt rating on Monday for the first time in a decade, warning of the 'rapid depletion' of Russia's massive reserves. ... The government has steadily added to its bailout package, which now totals more than $200 billion. ... S&P highlighted Russia's spending of its reserves as a key reason for its downgrade to BBB from BBB+, adding that a further downgrade is possible. ... Its current debt remains at modest levels", Gregory White at the WSJ, 9 December 2008.

AAA may mean nothing today.

In reading this article, I thought, "If Russia is only a BBB credit, why should Uncle Sam be higher"? I await S&P's downgrading Unc's debt.

Block on Fractional Reserve Banking

Walter Block's 9 December 2008 piece on fractional reserve banking is worth reading: http://www.lewrockwell.com/block/block120.html.

Ivy League Chickens

"Here's another sign of the tough economic times: Some clinics are reporting a surge in the number of women applying to donate eggs or serve as surrogate mothers for infertile couples. ... One ad running in campus newspapers promises $25,000 for a donor who is '100% Jewish with ... High SAT Scores ... Attractive, at Healthy Body Weight and Free of Genetic Diseases.' ... Andrew Vorzimer, an attorney who represents prospective parents in Los Angeles, says the usual six-month wait for a surrogate in California has vanished as well. 'Many of these women have college loans to pay off or they want to help buy a house or provide for their own kids' education,' says Mr. Vorizmer, who is also CEO of Egg Donation Inc., a recruiting agency in Encino", Melinda Beck at the WSJ, 9 December 2008.

Shades of William Shockley's "genius" sperm bank. When will Ivy League (IL) female students pay tuition in eggs? The IL can "certify" and sell them at a profit. After losing $11 billion in the market recently, Harvard needs the money. I have another idea for the IL: make female students sell eggs to fund various charitable causes. Karl Marx would approve, "From each according to his ability. To each according to his need". Compare this to the kidney donation situation, my 13 November 2007 and 15 January 2008 posts:

http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2007/11/price-controls-work.html.
http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2008/01/man-is-presumed.html.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Welcome to North Korea

"The political world was set on its ear last week by the report that Caroline Kennedy might be interested in Hillary Clinton's Senate seat in New York. ... Bear in mind that Caroline has never done one thing politically in her life until endorsing Barack Obama earlier this year. But, because of her last name and her family's history, she can call Gov. Patterson just 'for informational purposes about the Senate.' ... Caroline has three children who are almost grown up and, according to a source in yesterday's New York Post, 'She's looking for a mission in life. Preferably in politics.' So someone from a 'royal' political family in the midst of a mid-life crisis can just choose whether or not she can be a U.S. senator. Only in America. This is, of course, a total farce. Serious people who have worked in the political vineyards are aghast as this recent trend in American politics: the Bushes, the Clintons and the Kennedys all have dominated national politics because of the power of a name. ... America was created as a rejection of inherited power. Yet, somehow, we keep drifting back to it", John LeBoutillier (JL), 8 December 2008 at http://newsmax.com/john_leboutillier/Caroline_Kennedy/2008/12/08/159436.html.

"'What really draws me to the notion of Caroline (Kennedy) as senator, though, is the modern-fairy-tale quality of it all. ... Caroline has always been part of my consciousness: The lucky little girl with a pony and an impossibly handsome father. ... In this fairy tale, Caroline is our tragic national princess.' So gushed Ruth Marcus, the hard-as-nails political scribbler for the Washington Post (WP), even as the circulation of the [WP] continues to slide. ... She is playing 'My Little Pony' on the front page , as a substitute for adult analysis about Caroline Kennedy for Senator from New York, a job for which her previous life as Little Princess of the Kennedy Clan has obviously qualified her. ... Nothing could better prove the bottomless triviality of the liberal media as they say goodbye to their monopoly power in American politics, having thrown up in the very act of dying the farthest Left president in American history. The media terminate their monopoly with a final, giant finger to the American Republic. I will not mourn their passing. ... There is nothing new about goo-goo liberalism. ... It is not even a substitute for thinking. Like much of the media today, it is gaudy pink lipstick on the snorting pig of media decay. ... If [Barack Obama] turns out to be a Jimmy Carter, or worse, the voters may find themselves having to grow up fast. Vladimir Putin and Mahmoud Ahmandinejad will not be impressed with My Little Pony", James Lews, 9 December 2008 at: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/12/the_fairy_tale_school_of_polit.html.

Why is JL complaining? Isn't this how the Democratic People's Republic of Korea operates? Didn't Kim Jong-Il follow Kim Il-Sung? Further, didn't Raul follow brother Fidel Castro in the Republic of Cuba? JL protests too much. Apparently JL didn't realize Caroline's assumption of Hillary's NY Senate seat will be only temporary. Temporary? Chelsea will be 30 in 15 months! Besides, Caroline is qualified to be US President. She went to Harvard then Columbia Law School! Lock and load. Peasants, get your pitchforks. Viva la revoluccion!

Lewis has got it.

Condoleezza Rice and William Jennings Bryan

"Federal prosecutors in Washington likely face an uphill fight in their case against five indicted Blackwater Worldwide guards who are expected to surrender to authorities Monday. The case is crucial for the Justice Department, which is struggling to show it can hold U.S. security contractors accountable, as well as for Iraqi leaders, who have just stripped legal immunity from foreign guards. ... Justice officials have faced trouble with the case nearly from the start. Investigators from the State Department, which had jurisdiction over the guards, gave the men immunity in exchange for providing statements immediately following the incident. ... The September 2007 shooting incident outraged Iraqis and led the government to aggressively lobby for the elimination of immunity for foreign private security guards", my emphasis, August Cole and Evan Perez at the WSJ, 8 December 2008.

I hope the give Blackwaters kick the (in)Justice Department's arse on this. I note Blackwater was not indicted. Where will, Patrick Rowan, assistant attorney general on this, work when Obama becomes president? A law firm that represents Iraq's lobbyists? Apparently Condoleezza Rice & Co. needed some scapegoats to ingratiate itself with Iraq's government, voila, scapegoats. In 1896 William Jennings Bryan (WJB) delivered his famous "Cross of Gold" speech at Chicago's Democratic Convention. In 1913 WJB became Secretary of State under Woodrow Wilson (WW). WJB became so outraged at WW's foreign policy that he resigned in 1915. Connie baby, do likewise. Instead, you crucify five nobodys on a cross of failed US foreign policy. This case looks like a State-DOJ-FBI travesty.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Jesse Rants

"The problem of official US statistics not fully reflecting the actual economic situation is reasonably well-documented and accessible to any literate person. ... Peer pressure discourages negativity and outlying opinions amongst many economists, so trend changes and innovation in ideas become particularly problematic. ... Noriel Roubini is hailed as a prophet for predicting a downturn that common sense and an examination of the statistics should have made it obvious to a first year economics student in March at the latest. Roubini was a maverick in that as a tenured professor with a reputation he dared to state the obvious before it became painfully obvious to everyone. ... Meredith Whitney and Yves Smith are two outstanding examples of those who are led by the data, who are remarkable in the integrity of their thought processes, even when they might be incorrect as we all are. ... It fosters an ideological balkanization of knowledge, and the tendency to impress and intimidate rather than illuminate, because the person understand they simply do not know the answer, but can never admit it. Perhaps that is why some of the best information has been coming from those who have less vested interest in the established order. ... Then there are the economists who act as hired opinion slingers or unpaid angry villagers for ideological causes and think tanks, tending to dominate the landscape in the short term because it is easier to declare yourself and work for a group whose first principles you embrace. ... Change is coming, and a renewal of thought is in the air. It may be time for a radical change in rethinking old ideas of how an economy can operate efficiently, ironically by often viewing even older ideas in the light of new experience", my emphasis, Jesse, 7 December 2008 at http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/12/jobs-picture-even-worse-than-painted-by.html.

In 1958 I read a piece about the US balance of payments and why despite all mainstream economists said about Europe's "dollar shortage", the US's negative balance of payments was unsustainable over the long run. It was put out by the American Institute of Economic Research (AIER), Great Barrington, MA 01230. I have read AIER publications, on and off for 50 years. That's right, 50 years! The AIER was founded in 1933 by EC Harwood (ECH), an engineer, not an economist and initiallly operated from MIT's campus. What brings the AIER to mind now? Jesse's comments in bold. You can buy AIER publications at http://www.aier.org/. Some items worth considering:

Cause and Control of the Business Cycle, 1974, by ECH.
A Current Appraisal of the Behavioral Sciences, 1973, by Rollo Handy and ECH.
Reconstruction of Economics, 1970, by ECH.
Useful Procedures of Inquiry, 1973, by Rollo Handy and ECH.

I don't agree with everything in these books, but each is worth reading. Cheapskate alert, these books are between $6 and $15 each.

Goldman's Long Arms

"Federal prosecutors on Monday unsealed a 101-count indictment against the mayor of Birmingham, Ala., and two associates on bribery and other charges related to the $5.4 billion worth of financial instruments for a massive cleanup of county sewers. ... The indictment accuses Mayor Larry Langford--along with Birmingham investment banker William Blount and local lobbyist Albert LaPierre--of conspiracy, bribery, fraud, money-laundering and tax evasion related to $5.4 billion worth of financial contracts negotiated while Mr. Langford was in his previous post as president of the Jefferson County Commission. ... The 62-page indictment follows an investigation and civil lawsuit earlier this year by the [SEC] with largely identical allegations. That case is pending. ... The county's problems stem from a series of derivative contracts, known as interest-rate swaps, negotiated to finance the improvements to water and sewer systems. ... The county's credit downgrade and the change in the value of the swap caused its counterparties to demand additional collateral for the swaps. But county officials have said they can't meet that increase in collateral and continue to make bond payments. Jefferson now owes more than $400 million to swap counterparties, according to Swap Financial Group, a south Orange, N.J., advisory firm", my emphasis, Paulo Prada and Craig Karmin (P&K) at the WSJ, 2 December 2008.

"Larry Langford ... is accused of telling Wall Street giants JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers that they had to include his friend's investment banking firm on the deal if they wanted to handle the county's bond work, which was worth hundreds of millions of dollars", Houston Chronicle, 2 December 2008.

As soon as I read the words "swap counterparties" I thought,"what is Goldman's part in this"? GSG isn't named in P&K's article. Need to post more collateral, just tell Zimbabwe Ben that Jefferson County is an AIG affiliate. Piece of cake!

That'll learn yuh! If GSG doesn't want someone in its "syndicate", it will call its "enforcement arm" on you, the (in)Justice Department. Nobody tells GSG anything, excepting maybe, Vladmir Putin. Maybe.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Policy Instability

"In an article published in 1997 titled "Regime Uncertainty: Why the Great Depression Lasted So Long and Why Prosperity Resumed After the War,' I advanced the idea of regime uncertainty in an attempt to advance our understanding of the Great Depression's extraordinary duration and of the highly sucessful postwar transition to a genuinely prosperous market-oriented economy. ... In my conception, regime uncertainty pertains above all to a pervasive uncertainty about the property-rights regime. ... Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau tried repeatedly to persuade [FDR] to make a public statement that would reassure investors, and as the president continued to reject his entreaty, Morgenthau became so frustrated that in a 1937 cabinet meeting, he blurted out to his boss: 'What business wants to know is: are we headed toward Socialism or are we going to continue on a capitalist basis?' ... Morgenthau [also said in 1937] 'Uncertainty rules the tax situation, the labor situation, the monetary situation, and practically every legal condition under which industry must operate. Are taxes to go higher, lower or stay where they are? We don't know. Is labor to be union or non-union? ... Are we to have inflation or deflation, more government spending or less?' ... However, it is clear that government's frantic actions of the past several months have created a situation in which investors have little confidence about the character of future property rights in the United States", Robert Higgs (RH), 6 December 2008 at http://www.independent.org/blog/?p=635.

Yes RH. My "tax instability" concept seems to be an application of RH's broader "regime uncertainty", my 23 November 2008 post for example, http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2008/11/war-story.html. RH's concept also helps explain the recent stock market crash. US government policy instability is increasing real discount rates.

31 More Years?-4

"'These errors make us look either incompetent at credit analysis or like we sold our soul to the devil for revenue, or a little bit of both.' --A Moody's managing director responding anonymously to an internal management survey, September 2007. ... Moody's, which judges the quality of debt that corporations and banks issue to raise money, had just graded a pool of securities underwritten by Countrywide Financial, the nation's largest mortgage lender. But Countrywide complained that the assessment was too tough. The next day, Moody's changed its rating. ... That was not the only time Moody's softened its stance on Countrywide securities. It elevated ratings several times after Countrywide complained, the people briefed on the matter say. ... A Moody's spokeman, Anthony Mirenda, said ... 'Moody's knows of no instances in which a reconvened rating committee resulted in improper changes to ratings on Countrywide securities.' ... 'Moody's credit ratings play an important but limited role in the financial markets--to offer reasoned, independent, forward-looking opinions about relative credit risk, based on rigorous analysis and published methodologies,' Mr. Mirenda said. The company denies that it went easy on ratings to generate income. ... 'If you can't figure out the loss ahead of the fact, what's the use of your ratings,' asked an executive with Fortis Investments, a money management firm, in a July 2007 e-mail message to Moody's. 'You have legitimized these things, leading people into dangerous risk.' ... Edmund Vogelius, a Moody's vice president, explained the company's business model in a 1957 article in The Christian Science Monitor. 'We obviously cannot ask payment for rating a bond,' he wrote, 'To do so would attach a price to the process, and we could not escape the charge, which would undoubtedly come, that our ratings are for sale.' ... [Thomas] McGuire, the former director of corporate development at Moody's [said] 'Rating agencies are staffed by ordinary people with families to support and bills to meet and mortgages to pay,' he said in a speech to the S.E.C. in 1995. 'Government regulators are inadvertently subjecting those people to improper pressure, and share accountability for any scandals which may result.' ... 'The mistaken notion that Moody's was a company like any other, that was very fundamental,' said Sylvain Raines, a former Moody's analyst who is co-founder of R&R Consulting, a firm that helps investors guage debt risks. 'It is not just a profit-maximization entity like Exxon or Microsoft, Moody's has a duty to the American public. People trusted it'," my emphasis, Gretchen Morgenstern (GM), 7 December 2008 at http://www.nytimes.com/.

I am sure Mirenda is telling the truth. As long as Moody's is paid, any rating changes are by definition, proper. As I've said before, the rating agencies suffer from the same classical agency problem as CPA firms. Fixing the problem will require the same medicine in both cases.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

The Deprizio Doctrine and AIG

12 May 1989 turned the bankruptcy world upside-down with the release of Levitt v. Ingersoll-Rand, 874 F2d 1186 (7th Cir., 1989) (Easterbrook, J.). Frank Easterbrook (FE) is the second most economically literate judge on today's federal bench. He would make an excellent Supreme. FE's opinions are a joy to read. The Deprizio Doctrine, as it is commonly known, was repealed by Section 202 of 1994's misnamed Bankruptcy Reform Act, as a sop to bankers to unsecured creditors' detriment. Why go into dead bankruptcy law here? To show the "thinking" behind what AIG seems to be doing. "In 1980 V.N. Deprizio Construction Co. was awarded contracts to do $13.4 million of work on the extension of Chicago's subway system to O'Hare Airport. By 1982 the company was in trouble. ... These and other dealings by Richard N. Deprizio, the firm's president, including suspicions of affiliation with organized crime, led the [US] Attorney to open an investigation. In April 1983 Deprizio Co. filed a petition under the Bankruptcy Code of 1978. ... As the investigation continued and Deprizio's indictment was imminent, word circulated that he might 'sing'. So in January 1986 Deprizio was lured to a vacant parking lot, where an assassin's gun and the obligations of a lifetime were discharged together. Corporations are not so easily liquidated', 1187. That's how we do things in Chicago, Al Capone's ghost still stalks the city! "Payments out of the ordinary course in the 90 days before filing a bankruptcy petition may be recovered for the estate under SS 547 and 550. ... Payments to or for the benefit of an insider during the full year, not just 90 days, may be recovered by virtue of S 547(b)(4)(B). ... The Trustee reasoned that the payments made to these outside creditors were 'for the benefit' of insider co-signers and guarantors, because every dollar paid to the outside creditors reduced the insider's exposure by the same amount", 1188. "Now for the principal question: whether the Trustee may recover from an outside creditor under S 550(a)(1) a transfer more than 90 days before the filing that is avoided under S 547(b) because of a benefit for an inside creditor. ... More than language lies behind this approach. The trustee's power to avoid preferences (the 'avoiding power') is essential to make the bankruptcy case a collective proceeding for the determination and payment of debts. Any individual creditor has a strong incentive to make off with the assets of a troubled firm, saving itself at potential damage to the value of the enterprise", my emphasis, 1194. "Insiders pose special problems. Insiders will be the first to recognize that the firm is in a downward spiral. If insiders and outsiders had the same preference-recovery period, insiders who lent money to the firm could use their knowledge to advantage by paying off their own loans preferentially, then putting off filing the petition in bankruptcy until the preference period had passed. ... An alternative device is to make the preference period for insiders longer than that for outsiders. With a long period for insiders, even the prescient managers who first see the end coming are unlikely to be able to prefer themselves in distribution. ... So insiders bent on serving their own interests (few managers hold outside lenders' interests of equal weight with their own!) could do so by inducing the firm to pay the guaranteed loans preferentially. ... While concealing the firm's true financial state, they would pay off (at least pay down) the debts they had guaranteed, while neglecting others. To the extent they could use private information to do this more than 90 days ahead of the filing in bankruptcy, they would make out like bandits", my emphasis, 1195. GSG was no creditor of AIG's insurance subsidiaries. These subsidiaries should have refused Eric Dinallo's (ED) request and told AIG, "go to hell".

Metromedia v. Fugazy, 983 F2d 350 (2nd. Cir., 1992) illustrates the kind of accounting analysis involved in insolvency determinations and why AIGs' CDS counterparties cannot let a jury make an AIG insolvency determination. AIG's 30 September 2008 10-Q, states it had (billions) $73 of shareholders' equity and owed the Fed $63. However, some of its assets look questionable under current circumstances, like $10 in goodwill, $48 in deferred policy acquisition costs and $24 in prepaid commitment fees. PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) should have a very interesting 2008 audit. Let's see what PWC does for $120 million, which is what it charged AIG last year. Will PWC conclude AIG is not a going concern? If not, what then? Why is PWC auditing AIG anyway?

"[PWC], the independent auditor for [AIG], will pay $97.5 million to settle a class-action securities fraud lawsuit against the insurance giant and others, according to the Ohio state attorney general. ... A federal appeals court also upheld a $182.9 million jury award that PwC will have to pay policyholders of a defunct insurance company audited by the Big Four firm's predecessror, Coopers & Lybrand", Practical Accountant, November 2008.

"Bruce West, Sr., a Texas real estate developer, experienced serious financial problems as a result of the decline in the Texas economy during the mid- to late 1980s. West eventually filed a petition in bankruptcy on April 2, 1990. This criminal case emanates from West's bankruptcy filing, with many of the charges contained in the indictment based on three transactions that West participated in shortly before his bankruptcy petition", US v. West, 22 F3d 586, 587 (5th Cir., 1994). "West was convicted of several counts of bankruptcy fraud, in violation of 18 U.S.C. S 152. Three of these counts charged West with fraudulently transferring funds to Exalter during Feburary and March 1989. West contends that transfers, which occurred more than one year prior to the filing of his bankruptcy petition, cannot provide the basis for a S 152 prosecution because the transfers were 'outside the jurisdiction of the Bankruptcy Code.' ... We disagree with West's interpretation of S 152. The plain language of S 152 certainly cannot be read to impose the requirement suggested by West", 589. "Moreover, in light of the explicit intent requirements found in S 152, we will not transplant from the Bankruptcy Code the additional requirement that a fraudulent transfer, to be prosecutable as bankruptcy fraud, must be made within one year prior to the defndants filing of his bankruptcy petition. A defendant may knowingly and fraudulently transfer property in contemplation of or with the intent to defeat the provisons of Title 11 without necessarily transferring the property within one year before filing a bankruptcy petition", my emphasis, 589-90. "Indeed, a knowledgeable defendant bent on pursuing a fraudulent course of action would effect a fraudulent transfer outside the one year period within which the bankruptcy trustee could rescind it", my emphasis, 590. Are AIG's CDS counterparties "knowledgable"? If AIG files bankruptcy say 15 months after 15 September's "ED transaction", will the SDNY US Attorney immediately indict AIG's CDS counterparties, their attorneys and senior management personnel? Or would that squelch Mike Garcia's successor's NY BigLaw partnership? Stay tuned for this saga's next installment. "For example, the financial statements prepared on West's behalf indicate that West's net worth fell dramatically after 1985. Because the deterioration of West's financial situation bears strongly on both his incentive and need to seek bankruptcy protection, such evidence is relevant not only to West's motive for hiding assets from creditors, but also indicated that it was very probable that he knew he was going to file a petition in bankruptcy long before March 1990", 595. Do AIG's CDS counterparties know enough about AIG's financial situation to be similarly criminally liable? "At trial, the only real issue in dispute involved West's intent--i.e., whether he acted in comtemplation of declaring bankruptcy or with intent to defeat the Bankruptcy Code", 597. Are AIG's CDS counterparties different? Yes. West was a nobody who concealed about $800,000 from the bankruptcy trustee, peanuts. Not tens of billions. It's Anatole of France time, my 1 September, 30 October and 9 November 2007 and 24 January 2008 posts.

"Defendant, an attorney, appeals from convictions of the crimes of concealing assets from a trustee in bankruptcy, 18 USC 152, and conspiring to transfer the assets of one corporation to another in contemplation of bankruptcy and with intent to defeat the National Bankruptcy Act, 18 USC 371 and 18 USC 152. ... There was evidence before the jury that Switzer's client, a corporation called Berkeley Jewelers, Inc., borrowed substantial sums from money lenders who also were represented by Switzer", my emphasis, US v. Switzer, 252 F2d 139, 141 (2nd. Cir., 1958). "In December 1949, Switzer, who was well aware of the corporation's financial deterioration, proposed a plan whereby the bulk of its inventory would be transferred to a new corporation to be managed for the benefit of those creditors who were also Switzer's clients. The new corporation was then to continue the profitable portion of the old corporation's business", my emphasis, 141-2. "The valuable inventory previously removed was then sold for the benefit of the favored creditors and Switzer; and the property purchased at the sale went to the newly organized corporation, which continued to pay the old corporation's debt to one of the creditors with whom Switzer was associated. ... These decisions reveal that the intent of Congress was to prevent the defeat of the bankruptcy statute and that this intent is best applied by adopting a literal reading of the statute", my emphasis, 142. "It is clear that the latter interpretation should be followed because the actual intent of Congress is best served by prohibiting either transfer or concealment for either one may defeat the purpose of the Act", my emphasis, 142-3. AIG looks like a reverse Switzer, in that Switzer created a new company to effect an inequitable distribution of the bankrupt's assets. AIG, in effect, is combining itself with its seperately incorporated insurance subsidiaries to effect an inequitable distribution of the insurance subsidiaries assets.

"The owner of a defunct Wayne-based health benefits management company pleaded guilty today to mail fraud and tax evasion, admitting he misled subscribing participants and employers about the management of premium payments, embezzled from commingled accounts and ran the business into bankruptcy, U.S. Attorney Christopher J. Christie announced. Donald Ruth, 64, formerly of Hackensack and now of Hudson, Fla., admitted that, with the diverted and commingled funds of Wayne, NJ-based Meredian Benefit, Inc., he purchased a Florida home, a boat and paid for travel and other personal expenses--in addition to receiving more than $1.5 million in income between 1999 and mid-2003, when Meridian collapsed and filed for bankruptcy, leaving approximately $15 million in unpaid insurance claims. ... Meridian was established by Ruth as a third-party administrator of health benefit plans such as those established by employers for their employees. ... The company collected close to $40 million from the participant groups. Ruth and Meridian promised and represented that funds collected from participant groups would be segregated and held in trust accounts. ... Throughout the concealment, Ruth admitted, he induced continued payments from current participants while aggessively soliciting others to further the scheme. To prevent detection, Ruth admitted that he with others did mass mailings to participants with false assurances of future payments and disseminated a roster of false explanations to customer service personnel to explain and delay claim payments", my emphasis, Department of Justice Press Release, 22 September 2005, link: http://www.dol.gov/ebsa/pdf/ruth2.pdf.

"The $50 billion privatization of Bell Canada, Canada's largest telecomminications company, was in jeopardy Wednesday after accountants said they were unable to conclude if the leveraged buyout would leave the company solvent. Bell Canada, which trades under the corporate name BCE, is among Canada's most widely held and prominent corporations. Unless the accountants change their minds, 'the transaction is unlikely to proceed,' the company said Wednesday. ... But its failure would be openly welcomed by current Bell debt holders, who say they believe their bonds will be degraded, and would provide relief at the banks that agreed to finance the takeover in a much different market climate in June 2007. ... In a brief statement, [BCE] said that the accounting firm KPMG found in a preliminary analaysis that 'the amount of indebtedness' involved in financing the deal,about $30 billion, left it unable to conclude whether the privatized company would be solvent. ... [BCE's] chief financial officer, Siim A. Vanaselja, said in that company's statement, 'The company disagees that the addition of the LBO debt would result in BCE not meeting the technical solvency definition.' ... The debt holders, however, challenged the transaction in court, saying it unfairly favored equity holders at their expense. While they were successful at a Quebec court, that ruling was overturned by the Supreme Court of Canada after an unusally swift hearing in June", my emphasis, Ian Austen, 27 November 2008 at http://www.nytimes.com/.

Francine McKenna mentions KPMG's solvency opinion at her re The Auditors, 28 November 2008, link: http://www.retheauditors.com/2008/11/kpmg-in-news-not-good-kind.html.

"It is unusual for a merger pact to require a solvency certificate as a condition of closing. banks typically require such certificates to finance a transaction, but BCE had put this condition is place because it wanted to protect itself from complaints by existing BCE bondholders about the company's new, debt-heavy capital structure. A collapse would likely benefit the financing banks, led by Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank, the Royal Bank of Scotland and Toronto Dominion", my emphasis, Peter Layttman at the WSJ, 28 November 2008.

"BCE, the parent of Bell Canada, recently was hit by a preliminary solvency opinion from valuation consultants KPMG warning that the telecom operator mightn't be solvent if its $55 billion buyout by a group led by Providence Equity Partners and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan goes through. ... Typically, with solvency opinions, they're talking about the three tests that could constitute what's called a fraudlent transfer. If you couldn't have passed the three tests prior to and subsequent to the deal, you weren't deemed solvent. Two of them have to do with the company's balance sheet. The first test would be: Do assets exceed liabilities where the assets are valued as a going concern. The second is, is the company left with adequate capital after the transaction closes, so that it there's a market hiccup after the deal happens, will it be pushed over the line, or close to it? The third is the cash-flow test, which tells whether the company can pay its debt when it comes due", Heidi Moore Interview of Rick Braun (RB) at the WSJ, 3 December 2008.

"[AIG] owes Wall Street's biggest firms about $10 billion for speculative trades that have soured, according to people familiar with the matter, underscoring the challenges the insurer faces as it seeks to recover under a U.S. government rescue plan. ... The speculative trades, engineered by the insurer's financial-products unit, represent the first sign that AIG may have been gambing with its own capital. ... An AIG spokesman characterized the trades not as speculative bets but as 'credit protection instruments.' He said that exposure has been fully disclosed and amounts to less than $10 billion of AIG's $71.6 billion exposure to derivative contracts on debt pools known as collateralized debt obligations as of Sept. 30. ... The fresh $10 billion bill is particularly challenging because the terms of the current $150 billion rescue package for AIG don't cover those debts. ... The outstanding $10 billion bill is in addition to the tens of billions of taxpayer money that AIG has paid out over the past 16 months in collateral to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. [GSG] and other trading partners on trades called credit-default swaps. ... AIG's problem: The rescue plan calls for a company funded by the [Fed] to buy about $65 billion in troubled CDO securities underlying the credit-default swaps that AIG has written, so as to free AIG from its obligations under those contracts. But there are no actual securities backing the speculative positions that the insurer is losing money on. Instead, these bets were made on the performance of pools of mortgage assets and corporate debt, and AIG now finds itself in a position of having to pay off its partners because those assets have fallen significantly in value. The Fed first stepped in to rescue AIG in mid-September with an $85 billion loan when the collateral demands from banks and losses from other investments threatened to send the firm into bankruptcy court. ... Some of AIG's speculative bets were tied to a group of [CDOs] named 'Abacus,' created by [GSG]. ... In what amounted to a side bet on the value of these holdings, AIG agreed to pay [GSG] if the mortgage debt declined in value and would receive money is it rose. ... The plan has resulted in banks in North America and Europe emerging as winners: They have kept the collateral they previously received from AIG and received the rest of the securities' value in the form of cash from Maiden Lane III. ... It also has been a double boon to banks and financial institutions that specifically bought protection on now shaky mortgage securities and are effectively being made whole on those positions by AIG and the [Fed]", my emphasis, Serena Ng, Carrick Mollenkamp & Michael Siconolfi at the WSJ, 10 December 2008.

"The fate of the C$51.7 billion ($41.3 billion) takeover of BCE Inc. took another turn after the telephone company got a positive solvency opinion from its new auditing firm, in a twist that could put the deal back on track. The Montreal-based telecom company retained PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, which determined that the company will be solvent after the buyout, said a person familiar with the situation", Shasha Dai, at the WSJ, 9 December 2008.

"The BCE Inc. buyout is officially busted. A year and a half after it was struck, then the largest private-equity deal in history, the $41 billion leveraged buyout of the Canadian telephone company collapsed Wednesday when a valuation expert at auditing firm KPMG LLC issued a final opinion that the transaction would create an insolvent entity. ... BCE is expected to take issue with that view and sue the private-equity group over the breakup fee. ... While BCE and the private-equity firms will likely head to court, four financing banks are in a position to walk away with an early Christmas present. Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and Toronto Dominion Bank won't have to provide $34 billion in debt to fund the deal. Had the buyout deal closed, the banks would have absorbed as much as $12 billion in losses from selling the debt package at steep markdowns or by holding the debt on their books", Peter Lattman at the WSJ, 11 December 2008.

Here's an explanation of various bankruptcy scams, including bust-outs and bleed-outs: http://www.crfonline.org/orc/pdf/ref11.pdf. Strictly speaking, amongst us bankruptcy fraud cognoscenti, AIG appears to be a "bleed-out" as opposed to a "bust-out". Either one can be prosecuted under 18 USC 152.

First AIG question: is GSG an insider or an outsider? Since GSG apparently had ED authorize AIG's insurance subsidiaries to "upstream" $20 billion to AIG's parent, GSG looks like an insider to me. I think GSG should be held to be a "control person" of AIG and this should be disclosed in both companies SEC filings. Chris Cox, are you listening? What do you do anyway?

The Ruth case is a recent insurance company bust-out. These things get prosecuted from time-to-time.

Existing bondholders usually are injured by LBOs.

RB, a managing director of FTI Consulting correctly describes the three solvency tests. It is clear AIG would fail the third and possibly the second test. To be insolvent, one need fail any of the three tests.

AIG is like BCE in that creditors' relative positions are being shuffled around to benefit say, GSG, and injure AIG insurance subsidiary policy holders.

Doesn't this give to great confidence in the Big 87654's work?

I handn't thought about this before, but KPMG audits Citigroup. It should never have accepted this valuation assignment.

Step right up ladies and gentlemen, in this corner, the largest bankruptcy fraud in history. Frank Easterbrook must be laughing at this. Over 16 months. Hmm. Just get over that 12 month period for the last payment and we're home free! AIG should have filed bankruptcy in September.