Monday, May 12, 2008

Americocentric Analysts

"Oil's seemingly unstoppable surge has led some analysts to issue gloomier price outlooks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc, which predicted the latest run-up says the world may face a 'super-spike' in which crude ranges from $150 to $200 a barrel as early as October, up from $120 now. ... Even more unusual is that oil has maintained its upward momentum in the face of sharply diminished U.S. demand, which fell in Febuary to 19.7 million barrels a day. That was down a million barrels a day from the 2007 average. ... The world oil market has also learned to be disappointed with non-OPEC producers, as underinvestment and aging oil fields in places such as Mexico and Russia have crimped crude production. ... Many analysts now contend that oil prices will fall only following a sharp and sustained drop in demand in the U.S. and other large consuming countries", WSJ, 7 May 2008.

It's good the analysts now realize US oil consumption is only about a quarter of the world's total.

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