Showing posts with label Spengler. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spengler. Show all posts

Monday, June 21, 2010

Spengler on the Flotilla

"Israel mishandled the Gaza 'humanitarian aid' flotilla through extreme forebearance, and will suffer a marathon on tongue-clicking and hand-wringing by diplomatic hypocrites who know better. The Jewish state lost the propaganda battle the moment the floating time bomb disguised as a humanitarian mission sailed from Turkey. ... Jonathan Schanzer, a former US government official specializing in terrorist financing, provides the details and links to the relevant US government documents in a post at the Weekly Standard blog. ... Turkey's secular government of a decade ago banned the IHH from contributing to earthquake relief because of its terrorist ties, as Caroline Glick observes in the Jerusalem Post. The fact that the present Islamist government of Prime Minister Tayyip Erodgan has embraced IHH is consistent with Erdogan's public support for Iran. ... Israeli authorities offered to allow the flotilla to land at the Israeli port of Ashdod and ship its cargo of humanitarian aid to Gaza overland after appropriate security inspection; the flotilla refused. ... In short, the Gaza flotilla caper was the invention of an organization with deep ties to terrorist financing of Hamas to ameliorate a humanitarian problem that doesn't exist while refusing an Israeli offer to deliver its aid to Gaza. ... Evidently, Israel has trouble accepting the reality on the ground, just as other governments do. There is not going to be a peace negotiation, but rather a war, and that war will be terrible and bloody. ... The Gaza flotilla affair should teach Jerusalem that no matter how gingerly it approaches the threats on its borders, and how gently it responds, it ends up holding the bag for the region's problems. It might as well get down to the business of war", Spengler at Asia Times, 2 June 2010, link:

As usual, I agree with Spengler. In part, the flotilla was designed to enable Turkey to unseat Iran as Hamas major '"protector".

Friday, June 4, 2010

Spengler Exposes Petraeus

"Memo to heads of state: beware the clever general who turns up at a tough moment, and says 'Leave it to me. I can fix it for you.' ... General David Petraeus, who heads America's Central Command (CENTCOM), taught the land to live off him. Petraeus' putative success in the Iraq 'surge' of 2007-2008 is one of the wierdest cases of Karl Marx's quip of history repeating itself first as tragedy second as farce. The consequences will be similar, that is, hideous. ... And now America is engaged in a grand strategic withdrawal from responsibility in the region, leaving behind men with weapons and excellent reasons to use them. ... With American money, weapons and training, the remnants of Saddam Hussein's regime have turned into a fighting force far more effective than the defunct dictator's state police. ... America is pouring money--which is to say weapons--into disputed areas of Afghanistan, and building the core of a Palestinian army. The latter's mission is to impose a pro-Western Palestinian government on a population of whom two-thirds oppose the two-state solution. It more likely will end up fighting Israel. ... Iran is patient, playing for time, possibly to acquire nuclear weapons--which Washington has all but conceded--and until the Americans withdraw, which they must sooner or later. ... Having armed all sides of the conflict and kept them apart by the threat of arms, the [US] now expects to depart leaving in place governments of national reconciliation that will pursuade well-armed and well-organized militias to play by the rules. ... At some point the whole sorry structure will collapse, and no-one knows it better than Petraeus. ... Petraeus made his reputation on the surge, and needs someone to blame for its prospective failure. His choice is Israel. ... 'The upshot of this could not be clearer: Petraeus is echoing the narrative peddled incessantly by leftists in the government he serves and by Islamists in the countries where he works.' ... Because Petraeus sold the 'surge' to former president George W, Bush, allowing the Republicans to claim a certain degree of success for the largely unpopular Iraq War, his influence vastly exceeds that of a career officer. ... The Republicans are like investors involved in a Ponzi scheme; if any of them disavows it, everyone will, and the scheme will collapse. In order to justify their past support of nation-building in Iraq, they have difficulty disowning Petraeus--even when Petaeus puts the onus for the failure of American policy on Israel. ... Petraeus' formulation lends respectability to the fanciful idea that Iran would listen to reason if only Israel would stop building apartments in East Jerusalem. ... There is not a government in world that believes that 'effective sanctions against Iran' are anything more than a euphemism for catastrophic failure of American policy. ... If the [US] merely is going through the motions, why should the Russians or Chinese prejudice their commercial interests in order to assist the face-saving inanities of American diplomacy?", Spengler at Asia Times, 3 May 2010, link:

I agree with Spengler. As usual.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Israel and Iran

"The fact that Ha'aretz, Israel's left-leaning daily, found it necessary on February 17 to warn the Benjamin Netenyahu government not to attack Iran strongly suggests that the option is on the table. ... Hillary ... Clinton was quoted as saying that the 'evidence doesn't support' Iran's claim it is pursuing a peaceful nuclear program. ... Israel ... can act like an American client state, or a regional superpower. Either decision would have substantial costs. ... That is the concern of the editors of Ha'aretz: 'The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, warned in Tel Aviv on Sunday of the unepected consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran, just as he did during the days of the [George W] Bush administration. ... No matter how much 'intelligence help' and diplomatic support' Israel might get from the [US], Israel's capacity to deliver conventional munitions at a distance of 1,250 miles (2012 kilometers) could not eradicate the Iranian nuclear program, which is located in hardened underground facilities. ... Iran's perceived attempt to acquire nuclear weapons, though, is not Israel's problem as such; the problem is that Israel is the ally of a superpower that does not want to be a superpower, headed by a president with a profound emotional attachment to a nostalgic image of the Third World. If America were in fact acting like a superpower, the problem would not have arisen in the first place, for the [US] would use its considerably greater resources to destroy Iran's nuclear program. Rather than focus on the second-order effect--the consequences of Iran's possible acquisition of nuclear weapons--Israeli analysts should consider the primary issue, namely the strategic zimzum of the [US]. The correct questions are: 1) can Israel act as a regional superpower independently of the [US], and 2) what would Israel do to establish its regional superpower status? ... To act as a regional superpower, Israel would have to take actions that shift the configuration of forces in its favor. ... First, the Sunni Arab states have a stronger interest than Israel's to stop Iran from possibly going nuclear. ... The Saudis have done everything but take out a full-page ad in the Washington Post to encourage the Obama adminstration to attack Iran. Prince Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, warned on February 15 that sanctions were a long-term measure while the world faces a short-term threat from Iran. Egypt reportedly has allowed Israeli missile ships to pass through the Suez Canal en route to the Persian Gulf. Secondly, Russia might well prefer to deal with Israel as an independent regional power than as an ally of the [US]. ... Russian-Israeli cooperation in a number of military fields has improved markedly during the past year, including the first-ever sale of Israeli weapons to Russia (drones) and Israeli help for the Russian-Indian 'fifth generation' fighter project", my emphasis, Spengler at the Asia Times, 17 February 2010, link: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LB18Ak01.html.

I think Spengler has this knocked. Israel fought the Arabs in 1948 using Czech weapons. Huh? Did Stalin supply those? Yes.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Pax Obamicana

"History speaks of a Pax Romana, a Pax Britannica, and a Pax Americana--but no other namable eras of sustained peace, for the simple reason cited by Henry Kissinger: nothing maintains peace except hegemony and the balance of power. The balancing act always fails, though, as it did in Europe in 1914, and as it will in Central and South Asia precisely a century later. ... Those who wanted an end to US hegemony will get what they wished for. But they won't like it. ... The failure of the region's most populous state--in that case the Ottoman Empire, in this case Pakistan--makes shambles of the power balance, leaving initiative in the hands of irredentist radicals who threaten to tug their sponsors among the great powers along behind them. ... The US-sponsored frontier war amounts to Punjabis--traditonally the core of the country's military--killing Pashtuns. The default view of area defense analysts has been that army operations against the Taliban may turn into a Punjabi-Pashtun ethnic conflict. ... Pakistan is being ground between two millstones: the Afghan war and the global economic crisis. Half the country is illiterate, and half of Pakistanis live on less than US$1 a day. ... The credibility of secular government--with its promise of economic improvement--is threadbare. The alternative is an Islamist regime committed to confronting India over Kashmir and suppressing the Shi'ite minority that comprises 30% of Pakistan's population. ... Russia faces a slow demographic death, but it remains a great power in terms of military techonology: its surface-to-air-missile systems are as good as anything American [sic] can field, and its newest system, the as yet undeployed S-500, may be better. ... But Obama's budget cuts have hit military aviation hard, leaving its closest allies--including Israel and Australia--without a clear alternative to the aging F-16 force. Russia and India, meanwhile are developing a 'fifth generation' fighter, with some inputs from, France and Israel. There is widespread speculation that Russia's decision to cancel deliveries of its S-300 anti-missile system to Iran carried a price tag for the Israelis: order the latest Russian systems for their own use, and make available the entire package of Israeli avionics. ... In short, Washington appears to have driven its two closest allies in Asia--Isreal and India--into a technology alliance with Russia that may have enormous long-term consequences. ... China cannot sit by and allow India to encircle and eventually crush Pakistan--not because China has fundamental strategic interests in Pakistan, but because it cannot tolerate such a blemish to its credibility. The problem does not lie in Pakistan, but in the mutual capacity of India and China to destabilize each other. ... The implications of such an exercise in great-power politics [by the US] are in some respects ugly. ... The most dangerous undertaking of the Obama administration is not the petty failures of policy, such as the hapless effort to appease the Palestinians over West Bank settlements, or Pakistan over Kashmir. If America's technological leadership in fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, and related technologies continues to erode, the [US]--like Britain in 1914--no longer will have the power and credibility to enforce an agreement among prospectively hostile players. America's self-sabotage in this regard is a unique act of abnegation in the history of world strategy", my emphasis, Spengler at Asia Times, 23 December 2009, link:

Yes Spengler. Now tell that double-Ivy League nitwit in the White House. Well Generals McCrystal and Petreus, what say you?

Monday, December 14, 2009

Israel, Iran, Russia and Obama

"Iran has blamed the [US] for Sunday's suicide bombing in Sistan-Balochistan province in which six Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps commanders were killed, as well as 37 other people. In an indirect way, the charge is true. ... The most dramatic response to Washington's abdication of power may be Israel's. ... A complex negotiation involving Russia and Israel is underway. ... The question is: what does Russia want from Israel in return for refraining from arming Iran? ... For the first time since World War II, America's rule of the skies may be challenged by its failure to invest adequately in the next generation of American aircraft. Russia and India have already agreed on joint development of a fifth generation fighter based on existing Russian airframes. ... If Israel joined the consortorium, the product might challenge the F-35 in the world market for military aviation. ... Were Israel to strike Iran during the next few weeks, it might do so not as a proxy for the US, but as part of a broader agreement with Russia. America may have missed the point of Russian policy. The entire issue of sanctions on Iran may seem like diplomatic idiocy to the Russians; the question, in Moscow's judgment, may come down to a digital decision: either attack Iran, or don't. ... The [US] may cast away its technological edge in air power without a second thought, but Russia understands that superpower status today depends more on military technology than any other factor. ... If Israel were to set back Iran's nuclear weapons development, the position of the Tehran regime would deteriorate, particularly at the expense of Pakistan. ... The world's attention will shift from the shadow-play of interests between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs, to the Pakistan-India theater. Pakistan is the natural center of militant Islam. ... What is most astonishing is that official Washington seems entrely oblivious to the crack-up of American influence occuring in front of its eyes. ... The reason for Obama's peculiar mode of governance, though, may have less to do with his apparent narcissim than with his objectives. It is a credible hypothesis that this president holds views that he cannot easily share, even with his own staff. ... There is some basis for the conjecture that his innermost sentiment is hard-core, left-wing Third World antipathy to the [US]", my emphasis, Spengler at Asia Times, 19 October 2009, link:

As ususal, I agree with Spengler. Obama is the first US president whose administration I've lived through who I suspect of treason. I can't believe double-Ivy League Obama is as ignorant as he appears. He is disarming the US and pushing Israel into Russia's lap. Brilliant.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Spengler on Gold

"Even a rather wobbly reserve currency is a better asset than gold, whose price again crossed the US$1,000 mark last week. Gold is far less liquid than US Treasury securities, costly to store and insurance, and above all far more volatile in price. ... In a functioning world financial system, in which investors trust governments to control extreme instability, even an indifferently managed reserve currency with a broad capital market behind it is better than gold. ... Strictly speaking, gold isn't an investment but an insurance policy against a breakdown of the functioning of the world financial system. ... Divided by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), the price of gold trades at half its 1979 peak, when the world had cause to believe that America would lose the Cold War. ... America's position in the world today is far less subject to challenge than it was in those dark days at the end of the Carter administration. ... The scurrilous fringe of financial journalism likes to speculate as to when China will dump the dollar, without asking the obvious question: what would China do in the absence of the dollar? ... Gold will have no official role unless America's international role really does collapse, and the world is reduced from a system of trsut (or imperial dictates, which amounts to the same thing) to a kind of barter at the international level. ... Everyone owns too many dollars; by definition, a problem in the resrve currency means that the whole world is long as asset they no longer want. But the dollar is so large that nothing can substitute for it", my emphasis, Spengler at Asia Times, 14 September 2009, link: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KI15Dj08.html.

I am a 30-year card carrying member of the "scurrilous fringe of financial journalism". I assert China will dump the dollar and buy gold. I disagree, gold is better than any (paper) currency. Gold has fallen in real terms since January 1980, true. But the dollar has fallen 98% relative to gold since 1933. Is gold rising or the dollar falling? Gold is as "volatile in price" as the dollar. Who cares what gold's "official role" is? Nothing can substitute for the dollar. Interesting. Think about that.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

The Palestinian Solution

"'The situation for the Palestinian people is intolerable,' declared [US] President Barack Obama in his June 4 Cairo address. Really? Compared to what? Things are tough all over. The Palestinians are one of many groups displaced by population exchanges that followed World War II, and the only ones whose great-grandchildren still have the legal status of refugees. Why are they still there? ... The standard tables of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita show the West Bank and Gaza ar US $1,700, just below Egypt's $1,900 and significantly below Syria's $2,250 and Jordan's $3,000. ... Why should any Palestinian refugee resettle in a neighboring Arab country? ... Other data confirm that Palestinians enjoy a higher living standard than their Arab neighbors. A fail-safe gauge is life expectancy. ... Without disputing Obama's claim that life for the Palestinians is intolerable, it is fair to ask: where is life not intolerable in the Arab world? ... Why should Western taxpayers subsidize an Arab in Ramallah, when Arabs in Egypt are needier? ... Once the problem is diagnosed with this kind of clarity, the solution becomes obvious: Cut Western support to the Palestinians with the aim of reducing living standards in the West Bank to those prevailing in Egypt, as an incentive for emigration. Demilitarize Palestinian society", Spengler at Asia Times, 17 August 2009, link: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KH18Ak01.html.

Thank you Spengler. I suggested this decades ago.

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Spengler on Obama

"Obama doesn't want to betray the [US]; he only wants to empower America's enemies. Forcing Israel to abandon its strategic buffer (the so-called settlements) was supposed to placate Iran, so that Iran would help America stabilize Iraq, where its influence looms large over the Shiite majority. ... In Obama's imagination, a Sunni Arab coalition--empowered by Washington's turn against Israel--would encircle Iran and dissuade it from acquiring nuclear weapons, while an entirely separate Shiite coalition with [NATO] would suppress the radical Sunni Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. ... Iran has already made clear that casting America's enemies in the leading role of an American operation has a defect, namely that America's enemies would rather lose on their own terms than win on America's terms. ... The trouble is that Obama has promised to withdraw American forces from Iraq, and Iran has sufficient influence in Shiite-majority Iraq to cause continuous upheavel, perhaps even to eventually win control of the country. ... While the Pakistan army holds nothing back in attacking the Taliban, American troops in Afghanistan have been told they can no longer call in air strikes if civilians are likely to suffer. That will put American forces in the unfortunate position of the Pirates of Penzance, who exempted orphans. Once this became generally known, everyone they attempted to rob turned out to be an orphan. The Taliban need only take a page from Hamas' book, and ensure that civilians are present wherever they operate. ... Obama's policy reduces to empowering America's enemies in the hope that they will conform to America's interests out of gratitude. Just the opposite result is likely to ensure", Spengler at Asia Times, 30 June 2009, link: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF30Ak02.html.

I agree with Spengler. Again. The more I see of POTUS Obama, the more convinced I am he is an irresponsible, ignorant child. At best. At worst? Who knows? Does anyone know the story of Czechoslovakia in 1938 and how its being forced to abandon the Sudetenland left it virtually defenseless? What is Obama doing to Israel? Why? Is Obama that STUPID?

Monday, June 22, 2009

Obama in Cairo

"Why should the president of the [US] address the 'Muslim world', as Barack Obama will do in Egypt this Thursday? What would happen if the leader of a big country addressed the 'Christian world'? ... There is no 'Christian world' to address because Christianity has become a private religion of personal conscience. ... What does it mean, though, to address the 'Muslim world'? ... Muslim religious authority is exercised ad hoc. The quasi-animist Islam of Sumatra and the Wahhabi Islam of Saudi Arabia have about as much in common as Midwest Methodists and Nigerian Pentecostals. ... No denomination of Islam will abandon its pretensions at official status, and all aspire to world power. ... To address this aspiration is to breathe life into it. For an American president to validate such an aspiration is madness. America is not at war with Islam, unless, that is, Islam were to take a political form that threatens America's global interests. ... And if the [Arab-Israeli issue] is religious in origin, what specifically makes the conflict religious? If it really were the case that the Israelis and the Palestinian Arabs are fighting over religious matters, then the theological Muslim position is the one represented by Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon, namely that a Jewish state on territory once held by the ummah (Muslim community) is an outrage to Islam and never can be accepted. ... Excluding the unlikely possibility that Obama will declare himself to be a Muslim and claim religious authority in matters affecting Muslims everywhere, [ordering Muslims to accept the existence of the state of Israel] that is not going to happen in Cairo this Thursday. ... As a matter of national interest, many Muslim-majority countries may seek peaceful and even friendly relations with the Jewish state, irrespective of what the dictates of Islamic theology might be. Rather than addressing nations with national interest, though, Obama is addressing Muslims, over the heads as it were of the majority-Muslim nation states. ... No Muslim religious authority in Asia or Africa can or will rule that Islam can tolerate a Jewish state in Palestine with its capital in Jerusalem. ... A gauge of the absurdity of an American president addressing 'the Muslim world' was the difficulty in finding a venue for Thursday's speech. ... There is a way to rescue the situation, which I now propose to Obama in good faith: change the venue to New Delhi. ... Muslims around the world should look to India as an example of moderation and co-existence. Of all the available bad choices, Obama has taken the worst. It is hard to imagine any consequence except a steep diminution of American influence", original italics, my emphasis, Spengler, 1 June 2009, at: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF02Ak05.html.

War Story 1. In 1991 I was at the home of a friend of a friend. Coincidentally, the friend and every person in the room but me was Moslem. Someone commented about a newspaper story which criticized the Pope. They were amazed when I said we can print such stuff here. We have no blasphemy laws. Each of the six or seven Moslems present was a college graduate and US citizen. Still they thought we have blasphemy laws. I suppose they're correct when it comes to criticizing his Obamaness. War Story 2. Shortly after 9/11 in 2001, I ate in an Iranian restaurant on Ventura Boulevard in Encino, CA. I had eaten there about once every three weeks for about three years before 9/11. I liked eating there. The proprietor comes to me, almost in tears and says, "we're not terrorists. We're peaceful. We mean no harm". I looked at him and said, "we're not you. We're not barbarians here. Stop projecting what you believe would happen to Americans in Iran if the situation was reversed. No one can fortell the future. But I'll bet with 99% certainty, that nothing will happen to you, nor will anyone burn this restaurant down. Wait six months. See. This is not Iran. This is not Saudi Arabia". And so the proprietor's amazement, nothing happened! I referred to the Islamic Brezhnev doctrine on 13 December 2008, link: http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2008/12/americocentric-projection.html. I love Spengler, but disagree that Obama chose the worst venue. He could have gone to Tehran and alienated the Sunni world. Worse, he could have gone to Karbala in Iraq, a Shiite Holy site.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Bush and Obama's Islamic Fantasy

"'My job is to communicate to the American people that the Muslim world is filled with extraordinary people who simply want to live their lives and see their children live better lives,' [US] President Barack Obama told an Arabic television channel on January 26. Really? What are their names? Word has come to the West of no extraordinary Muslim thinker since the 12th century. ... By 'extraordinary', to be sure, Obama means no more than Garrison Keillor meant in saying that the children of Lake Wobegon are all above average. ... In the real world, the ordinary depends on the extraordinary, for it is the extraordinary citizens of a nation who set the mark for the aspirations of ordinary people. ... But woe unto cultures whence comes no contribution to the rest of humanity. Where are the Muslim scientists, novelists, entrepreneurs, athletes and musicians? Apart from political leaders, a reasonably diligent reader of a quality newspaper in the West will not be able to name a single Muslim distinguished in any field of human endeavor. Excluding the politically awarded Peace Prize, Muslims have won only three Nobel prizes since their inception more than an century ago, or one for every 450 million Muslims alive today. By contast, there have been 169 Jewish Nobel Laureates, (excluding the Peace Prize), or about one for every 89,000 Jews alive today. During the past century a Jew was 5,000 times more likely to win the Nobel than a Muslim. ... Excepting Turkey, no Muslim country has a single industrial company that can compete on world markets. ... In dozens of essays during the past five years, I excoriated former president George W. Bush for imagining that he could fix the problems of the Muslim world by promoting American-style democracy. If Obama spends more time reassuring and less time trying to fix the Muslim world, he will do better, by default, America's policy towards the incurables should be to live and let die", Spengler, 2 February 2009 at:

See my 6 February 2008 comments about Ahmed Ben Bella here: http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2008/02/woodrow-wilson-upside-down.html. Talk of hypocrisy. In 1972 I knew a resident at Columbia Presbyterian hospital in New York. He told me visiting Saudis insisted on Jewish surgeons. I asked him why. He said because they know Jewish doctors are the best. What frauds. Is the 5,000 to one ratio unexpected? Our friend, La Griffe du Lion sheds some light on this. His February 2000 and September 2003 posts, http://lagriffedulion.f2s.com/dialogue.htm and http://lagriffedulion.f2s.com/ashkenaz.htm are instructive. We learn Nobel Laureates average IQ is 144, or +2.93 SD. At +2.50 SD measured IQs exhibit "fat tails" and +2.93 SD is not .9983 or one in 596 but about one in 250. With Jews IQ at one SD about the caucasian mean, 144 IQ is .9734, one in about 38 or eight times as common. We're not done. From IQ and the Wealth of Nations, I estimate the Islamic world's average IQ is 84. We're still not done. In these countries, to the extent measured, IQ SD is about 13, so 144 is 60 /13 or + 4.615 SD, roughly .999998 or one in 500,000; estimating the fat tail effect at 10X, we get one in 50,000. How many Ashkenzim are there worldwide with IQs over 144? 9 million / 38 or 237,000. How many Moslems? 1.45 billion / 50,000 or 29,000. Coincidence? We don't think so. If the Islamic world wants to advance, it should beg Jews to relocate to Islamic countries and throw the Koran's anti-Jewish passages in the garbage.

Spengler's ratios are misleading as he compared "stocks" and "flows", i.e., the number of Nobel Prizes awarded over time to numbers of people alive today. This comparison would make sense if the ratio of Jews to Moslems was stable since 1900. It was not. In 1950 there were 12 and 361 million Jews and Moslems, today there are 13 and 1,450 million respectively. The ratio changed from 1 to 30 to 1 to 111. Assuming an average ratio since 1900 of 50, we get one Nobel Prize for every 76,000 Jews alive in a given year and one per 217 million Moslems, a 2,855 to one ratio.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Gaza Madness

"There is little doubt that Israel is morally justified in its offensive against Hamas. No nation can sit by and allow its territory to be rocketed with impunity. Not if it wishes to remain a nation for long. ... Even as Israeli troops push into Gaza following a week of air strikes, it seems highly unlikely that they will be able to decisely defeat the terrorist organization on their souther border. Achieving total victory would require waging war in the way that America fought Germany and Japan--all out and on many fronts until the enemy has no more capacity to resist. ... None of this is beyond the Israeli's military capacity (and Israel could do it without using nuclear weapons). They could also impose a peace at gunpoint. That is, essentially what they did between 1967, when the Gaza Strip was won from Egypt, and 1994, when the Palestinian Authority was created. They could do it again if necessary. ... The generally accepted estimate is that no more than 1,200 Lebanese died, half of them Hezbollah fighters. Even that relatively miniscule toll of 0.03% of Lebanon's population of 3.9 million--probably comparable to the damage now being inflicted on Gaza--evoked world-wide condemnation and accusations that Israel was committing war crimes. ... The Russians have inflicted World War II-level carnage in Chechnya since the mid-1990s, and they don't care what anybody else says. ... Israel is a liberal democracy in the modern age whose miltary operations are conducted under the intense scrutiny of lawyers, judges, opposition politicians, reporters and human-rights activists. And those are just its own internal watchdogs. To these must be added the 'international community,' which monitors Israeli actions with a degree of interest and antipathy reserved for no other state in the world. For all the accusations of brutality that are routinely flung at Israel's armed forces, their conduct has been exemplary by historical standards. ... We now know the settlers' departure did not mollify the extremists. it only emboldened them. ... Israel has always been a state that is one battle away from destruction, and it cannot allow its enemies to think it can be attacked with impunity. ... Israelis have to discard Gen. Douglas MacArthur's famous maxim: 'War's objective is victory--not prolonged indecision. In war there is no substitute for victory.' They will have to settle for a substitute because from their standpoint 'prolonged indecision' is better than the alternatives--the annihilation of themselves, which would be unthinkable, or of their enemices, which would be unconscionable", my emphasis, Max Boot (MB) at the WSJ, 5 January 2009.

"Israel's assault on Hamas is just the latest in a long chain of military clashes, the scripts of which are always the same. ... Sooner or later, the tactics of the Palestinian terrorists work. The voices of protest in response to Palestinian suffering grow louder until international pressure stays Israel's hand. ... Palestinian children are dying today not because of Israeli brutality, but because their own leaders have chosen to use their children as human shields, and their pain as a battering ram against Western sensibilities. ... This reflexive 'understanding' for the Palestinian leaders' abuse of their own people is the heart of the problem. For decades the international community has actively assisted in building the terrorists' unique system of control--over where Palestinians live and in what conditions, and over what they think--by allowing terrorists to turn the refugee camps into the center of the Palestinian war machine. ... With the Palestinians, the U.N. does exactly the opposite, granting refugee status to the great-grandchildern of people who were displaced in 1948, doing nothing to dismantle the camps, and acting as facilitators for the terrorists' goal, of grinding an entire civilian population under their thumb. Nowhere on earth do terrorists get so much help from the Free World", Natan Sharansky at the WSJ, 6 January 2009.

"No phrase represents more of a triumph of hope over experience than the phrase 'Middle East peace process.' A close second might be the once-fashionable notion that Israel should 'trade land for peace.' Since everybody seems to be criticizing Israel for its military response to the rockets being fired into their country from the Gaza strip, let me add my criticisms as well. The Israelis traded land for peace, but they have never gotten the peace, so they should take back the land. ... So called 'world opinion' has been largely a negative factor in the situation. Nothing is easier than for people living in peace and safety in Paris or Rome to call for a 'cease fire' after the Israelis retaliate against people who are firing rockets into their country. The time to cease fire was before the rockets were fired. What do calls for 'cease fire' and 'negotiations' do? They lower the price of launching attacks. This is true not only in the Middle East but in other parts of the world as well. ... Anywhere in the world, attacks such as those on Israel today would not only have risked retaliation but invasion and annihilation of the government that launched those attacks. Today, so-called 'world opinion' not only limits the price to be paid for aggression or terrorism, it has even led to the self-indulgence of third parties talking pretty talk about limiting the response of those who are attacked to what is 'propotionate.' ... Or is the real agends to engage in moral preening from a safe distance and at someone else's expense. Those who think 'negotiations' are a magic answer seem not to understand that when A wants to annihilate B, this is not an 'issue' that can be resolved amicably around a conference table", Thomas Sowell, 13 January 2009 at http://townhall.com/.

"Sentimental attachment to Third World cultures, though, is a Western phenomenon; in the Third World as it actually exists, one encounters other cultures and kills them. It remains to be seen whether the president-elect is a Western sentimentalist, or a Third World anthroplogist who has talked his way into the leadership of the United States. ... Governance in Africa is not about ideology, but about the raw exercise of power. Confronted with multiple crises that threaten the power of the United States, this clever Luo from Hawaii by way of Indonesia may defend his prerogatives more ferociously than anyone expects", my emphasis, Spengler, 12 January 2009 at http://www.atimes.com/.

Michael Savage (MS) on 5 January blasted Jordan's Queen Noor (QN) claiming she lied about 1970's "Black September" movement and Jordan's response. MS said QN said 10,000 Palestinians were killed by Jordan's army in 1970. Wikipedia claims it was 7,000 to 25,000. Contemporaneous estimates were about 100,000. QN's future husband forced about 300,000 Palestinians into the West Bank, then under Israeli control. Let's cut QN some slack. In 1970 she was 19 and at Princeton so may not have heard about the events until years later. QN does not thank Israel for giving the "Palestinian Refugees" a place to live. In two Chechen wars, Russia may have killed 100-250 thousand Chechens out of 1.3 million. Also 300-500 thousand Chechens were "displaced". Where are the UN, EU and OIS protests?

We support the PLO, Hamas, etc. We support terrorism.

Sowell, an economist at Stanford's Hoover Institution explains things in terms evan economists can understand. Or an Uncle Miltie would say, "If you want more terrorism, reward it. You want less, penalize it".

Quoted without comment.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Ivy League Puppies

"One wants to ask the Wall Street wizards who comprise the talent pool for the incoming administration, 'If you so smart, how come you ain't rich no more?' Manhattan's toniest private schools, harder to get into than Harvard, quietly are looking for full-tuition pupils now that the children of sacked Wall Street bankers are departing for public schools in cheaper suburbs. Harvard University president Drew Faust has warned of budget cuts to come due to 'unprecedented losses' to its US$39 billion endowment. ... [Robert] Rubin, a transition advisor to president-elect Barack Obama, was mentor to Treasury secretary designate Timothy Geithner. ... These facts came to mind while Reading David Brooks' November 21 New York Times panegyric to Obama's prospective cabinet, which gushes, 'Its members are twice as smart as the poor reporters who have to cover them, three times if you include the columnists.' Brooks added, 'as ... much as I want to resent these overeducated Achievatrons ... I find myself tremendously impressed by the Obama transition.' ... The cleverest people in the [US], the Ivy-pedigreed investment bankers, have fouled their own nests as well as their own net worth, and persuaded the taxpayers to bail them out. If these are the best and the brightest of 2008, America is in very deep trouble. ... Failed financiers run the Obama transition team. It used to be that the heads of great industrial companies got the top Cabinet posts. Now it is the one-trick wizards. ... Obama's bevy of talent comes from finance. American industrialists have become figures of ridicule, like the pathetic chief executive of General Motors, Rick Wagoner, begging for a government loan. ... A case in point is the reported implosion of the Harvard and Yale endowments. For years, these giant funds were held up as proof that superior intelligence was the ticket to excess returns. ... David Swenson, the legendary manager of the Yale Endowment, learned one trick: buy on dips in the equity market with all the borrowed money he could get. The alumni network on Wall Street made sure that the university endowments were in line for the hottest deals. ... For a quarter of a century, the inbred products of the Ivy League puppy mills have known nothing but a rising trend in asset prices. About the origin of this trend, they were incurious. ... Now that the stock market has collapsed, the private equity strategies cannot repay their debt, and their returns have evaporated. ... Over the long term, we know that the average investment cannot grow faster that the economy, for investments ultimately are valued according to their cash flows, and cash flows stem from economic growth. ... Whence came the enormous returns to the Ivy League? Some of them surely came from betting on the right horses, but most came from privileged access to leverage. ... Without leverage, the clever folk around Barack Obama are fleas without a dog. None of them invented anything, introduced an important new product, opened a new market, or did anything that reached into the lives of ordinary people. They wore expensive cufflinks, read balance sheets, exercised regularly, sat on philanthropic boards, and assumed that their flea's ride on the Reagan dog would last forever", my emphasis, Spengler, 24 November 2008 at http://www.atimes.com/.

"Last week the excellent David Brooks, in one of his columns in the New York Times, exulted over the quality of people President-elect Barack Obama was enlisting in his new cabinet and onto his staff. The chief evidence for these people being so impressive, it turns out, is they all went to what the world--'that ignorant ninny,' as Henry James called it--thinks superior schools, Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Stanford, the London School of Economics; like dead flies on flypaper, the names of schools Obama's new appointees attended dotted Brooks column. ... This administration will be, as Brooks writes, 'a valedictocracy.' The assumption here is that having all these good students--many of them possible 'toll-frees,' as high school students who get 800s on their SATs used to be known in admissions offices--running the country is obviously a good thing. ... Since my appreciation of David Brooks is considerable, and since I agree with him on so many things, why don't I agree with him here? ... The reason is that, after teaching at a university for 30 years, I have come to distrust the type I think of as 'the good student'--that is, the student who sails through school and is easily admitted into the top colleges and professional schools. The good student is the kid who works hard in high school, piles up lots of activities, and scores high on his SATs, and for his efforts gets into one of the 20 or so schools in the country that ring the gong of sucess. ... His perfect resume in hand, he runs only one risk--that of catching cold from the draft created by all the doors opening up for him wherever he goes, as he piles up scads of money, honors, and finally ends up being offered a job at a high level of government. He has, in a sense Spike Lee never intended, done the right thing. ... My sense of the good student is that, while in class, he really has only one pertinent question, which is, What does this guy, his professor at the moment, want? ... Harvard--and Yale, Princeton, Stanford, and the --others--has over the past three or four decades made this contentment easy to achieve. All these schools have done so by becoming, at least in their humanities and social sciences sides, more and more mired in the mediocre. ... In recent years I have come to think that some of the worst people in the United States have gone to Harvard or Yale Law Schools: Mr. and Mrs. Eliot Spitzer, Mr. and Mrs. William Clinton, and countless others. And why not, since these institutions serve as the grandest receptacles in the land for our good students: those clever, sometimes brilliant, but rarely deep young men and women who, joining furious drive to burning if ultimately empty ambition, will do anything to get ahead", Joseph Epstein (JE), 8 December 2008 at http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=15857&R=13D311E601.

I read Brooks, thought of posting on it, but will just quote Spengler. I love this guy. He channels my thoughts. Or I his. I disagree about pursuading the taxpayers. Joe Schmoe wants to see Zegna-suited bankers led to the guillotine or the hanging tree. I make the same observation about private equitys' returns and leverage here, 19 November 2008: http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2008/11/lbos-and-banks.html.

JE is a professor at Northwestern University. His description of an ambitious mediocrity fits our current chief justice to a "T", my 19 July 2008 post: http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2008/07/john-roberts-supreme-fraud.html. I trashed our Supremes on 26 January 2008, here: http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2008/01/supreme-injustice.html. What do these Law School geniuses know? See my 22 December 2007 post citing Raymond Woodcock, JD/MBA Columbia, http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2007/12/us-injustice-system-at-work.html.

Friday, October 3, 2008

Paulson's Plan Revealed

"Perhaps the biggest looming fight is over Democratic efforts to require the program's participants to curb what they pay their executives. ... Many are unnerved by Treasury's request for a blank check with few conditions. The proposal has also stirred a populist backlash, with many members of Congress saying the bill needs to be better geared to Main Street than Wall Street. ... Paulson is resisting efforts to limit the pay of executives whose firms participate in the program and plans to fight 'hard,' according to a person familiar with the matter. He fears that provision would render the program moot, since many firms might choose not to participate", my emphasis, WSJ, 22 September 2008.

"Why should American taxpayers give US Treasury Secretary 'Hank' Paulson [HP] a blank check to bail out the shareholders of busted banks? ... If America is to adopt socialism, why not have socialism for the poor, rather than for the rich? Why should American households that earn $50,000 a year subsidize Goldman Sachs partners who warn $5 million a year? ... Part of the problem is that Wall Street, like the ethnic godfather in the old joke, has made America an offer it can't understand. ... Contrary to what the Bush administration says, it is not the case that banks' troubled mortgage assets cannot be sold in the private market. ... Why is Lehman bankrupt, and Goldman Sachs still in business? ... Where, oh where, is America's Vladimir Putin, who will drive the oligarchs who have stolen the country's treasure and debased its currency", Spengler at http://www.atimes.com/, 22 September 2008.

"While it is dizzying to predict how this plan will be implemented, it is fairly simple to forsee the macroeconomic consequences. The U.S. dollar will be shattered beyond repair. ... The global mass exodus from the U.S. dollar and Treasury debt is about to begin: do not get caught in the stampede", Peter Schiff at http://www.europac.net/, 19 September 2008.

"To bankers and politicians who insist that the world will come to an end if the US Congress does not approve the proposed $700 billion bailout package, I wish to say, 'It is not the end of the world. It is just the end of you.' Sadly, it won't be. America's financier caste will live to fleece another day. ... The trouble is that the banking system is insolvent; that is, it lacks sufficient capital to hold its existing portfolio if assets, let alone to make new loans. ... Why anyone believes that the Treasury plan will prevent widespread economic misery is unclear. ... Nonetheless, the bailout package will pass in some form. America's intellectual class, right, left and indifferent, is too dependent on the begging-bowl proferred to the financier class to conceive of its existence after the prospective demise of its patrons", my emphasis, Spengler at http://www.atimes.com/, 1 October 2008.

Why does HP care what Wall Street executives earn, unless that is what his program is about: maintaining executive compensation. Suppose a firm fails to participate to continue to pay its executives fortunes? Where are our corporate governance people? Where is such a firm's Board? Would such an executive be sued for breach of fiduciary duty if his firm could have gained from the program? Will HP disclose which firms were so concerned about their exceutives' pay they opted to save the taxpayers money and taken their chances in the market?

Yes, where is our Czar Putin or dare I say it our master, "So he made a whip of cords, and drove all from the temple area, both sheep and cattle; he scattered the coins of the money changers and overturned their tables", John 2:15 (NIV). One duty of the American President is "tribune of the people", my 29 August 2008 post. We haven't had a president discharge that function in decades. Wall Street money changers out of Washington!

Right on Peter Schiff!

Spengler strikes again. Nothing a supposed expert says about the Paulson plan should be accepted no matter what pedigree he has.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Spengler on Leverage

"It is remarkable that the US authorities, exhausted from their efforts to bail out the mortgage guarantors and other firms, have left Lehman to its fate. An enormous hoax has been perpetrated on the global financial community during the past 10 years. ... Where the underlying profitability of the American economy was poor, financial engineering managed to transform thin profits into apparently fat ones through the magic of leverage. ... Wall Street and the City of London rode an unprecedented wave of profitability by providing overpriced leverage to consumer and corporate markets. Led by the financial engineers at Lehman, the securities industry grew an enormous infrastructure of staff, systems, and financial exposure. They were so successful that when the music stopped, there was no way to liquidate this mechanism gracefully. It could only be allowed to collapse. ... The aging pensioners of Europe and Asia must find young people to pay interest into their pensions at home. ... But one-fifth of Germans now are on the threshold of retirement and half will be there by mid-century. ... There is nothing complicated about finance. It is based on old people lending to young people. ... Never before in human history, though, has a new generation simply failed to appear. ... It is tempting to see in the failure of Lehman Brothers and the forced merger of Merrill Lynch with Bank of America a failure of 'corporate culture'. In the case of a great financial firm that has weathered many storms, the failure of a business culture contains more information. ... Lehman''s culture was held up as an exemplar, a beacon to the ambitious and avaricious. Lehman's demise is a minor event next to the travails of America's mortgage guarantee agencies, which required a government bailout last week, to be sure, but it is a landmark in the unravelling of American corporate governance. ... Bear was a group of scrappy outsiders, led by Jews of no social pedigree. ... Bear proudly rejected corporate culture and management philosophy as a matter of scruffy pride. ... [Jimmy] Cayne was not our class, dear; the jumped-up refugeee from a junkyard had risen too high and received his comeuppance. ... Everyone may like Dick Fuld, who presides over a socially-connected, politically-involved, army of networking specialists who have one of Wall Street's best stock of favors done and collectable in return, But no one likes Fuld well enough to buy his firm. ... What took both firms down, rather, is a sudden break in the chain of expectations between the present and the future", Spengler at http://www.atimes.com/, 15 September 2008.

I looked at Fannie's Board of Directors. Wow. It's 12 members include: a former FBI director, an accounting professor and seven persons in the "finance" industry. How much do these people know? As for corporate culture, whatever that is, bah humbug, see my 29 February 2008 post on Stephen Cutler.

Connie Yu, are you listening yet? Come home. Go to work for Exxon USA!

Monday, September 22, 2008

Spengler Channels Carlin

"After reading Vice President Dick Cheney's spirited defense on September 4 of the brave Georgian nation and the need to free Ukraine against nefarious Russian intentions, I listened to old comedy clips on YouTube until I felt well enough to write. We don't appreciate people until they are gone, and iconic American stand-up comedian, actor and author George Carlin's death in June was an irreparable loss for American foreign policy. ... By coincidence, Washington's two favorite beacons of liberty happen to be countries with the world's fastest rate of population decline. ... Only in the context of over-the-top black humor do Americans ask the obvious question, namely: What are certain countries doing there in the first place? Merely suggesting that some of them might not need to be there made [Sam] Kinison, who died in a 1992 car crash, the deepest foreign-policy thinker of his generation. ... Emulating Michael Ledeen, who sometimes channels the late James Jesus Angleton via an Ouija board, I have asked the late Carlin to comment on this from the afterlife. ... 'People speak 7,000 languages. Does that mean we need 7,000 countries? That's never going to happen. That would give us 7,000 UN missions with diplomatic plates, and no one in New York would ever get a parking spot. Nobody would be able to haul garbage. The mafia would send an army from Bensonhurst to kill them all. ... Most of these countries don't need to be there. ... NATO is a military alliance, right? Military--doesn't that mean soldiers? What if we get a country in NATO that doesn't have any people who are able to be soldiers? Suppose they were all paraplegics. Would we still let them into NATO? How about a motorized wheelchair brigade? ... The Mormons claim that they can pray dead people into heaven after the fact. Why can't we recruit extinct countries into NATO? ... That would really show the Russians were serious! We'll sic the Scythians and Etruscans on their *****! ...' Not everybody is going to make it. That should be America's mantra. American was settled by people who didn't think that Europe was going to make it, and decided that the better part of valor was to bail out and start something new. Georgia and Ukraine are not going to make it. They are past the point of no return. ... America's obsession with a happy ending for all--otherwise known as Wilsonian idealism--is the ultimate source of the problem. The Georgian crisis began, as everyone knows--but nobody in Washington will say--with the Bill Clinton administration's decision to bomb Serbia in defense of Albanian Muslims in the Serbian province of Kosovo. ... One can blame naivete, or Saudi influence, or any number of factors, but the fundamental weakness of American policy lies in the inability of Americans to conceive of unhappy endings for some important stories. That is what has turned America's foreign policy into a George Carlin routine", Spengler at http://www.atimes.com/, 9 September 2008.

"Many in Washington have described Russia's attack on Georgia as a turning point in international affairs. ... The attack on Georgia will go down not as the dawn of a new era of Russian power but as a major strategic blunder. ... The truth is, we're not in the 19th century, where the Russian intervention would have been standard operating procedure for a great power. ... Its actions are deplorable but the reaction to them--worldwide--is a sign of how much the rules have changed. ... The problem is not that Russia has been integrated into a world order that has failed to deter it, but rather that the country reamins largely unintegrated--and thus feels it has little to lose by breaking the rules", my emphasis, Fareed Zakaria (FZ) at Newsweek, 8 September 2008.

"'At no time did the U.S. attempt to train or equip the Georgian armed forces for a conflict with Russia,' [LTC Robert Hamilton] says. ... Even so, Newsweek has learned, NATO didn't bother to formally assess any of the new members' defense needs before they joined. 'The attitude was, the more the merrier,' says retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Charles Wald, deputy commander of U.S. forces in Europe through the early years of this decade. 'NATO didn't really look at the Article 5 part of it'," Newsweek, 15 September 2008.

Black humor? Do I detect racism afoot? I remember the Washington, DC school district banned the use of the word, "niggardly". Ouija board? Who needs one if you have a hermetically sealed mayonnaise jar? I may have grown up with Spengler. He talks of the mafia in Bensonhurst and NY's parking problems. I thought for decades it would be a pleasure to get rid of the UN and its army of rude "diplomats" armed with "DPL" and "FC" plates double-parking all over NY! Bensonhurst, no way; Bay Ridge! Yeah, Colonial Road in the 90s! Brilliant, I never thought of a motorized wheelchair brigade! Go Spengler. I add, domestic policy too! Victor Davis Hanson, please read this. I suggested "showing the Russians" with my "Paulson-Gates-Rice" position swap, 15 September 2008 post.

What really happened FZ? Your illusions were blasted into oblivion by Czar Putin's tanks. Grow up. That's how the world works. Read Thomas Hobbe's Leviathan, 1651. You might learn something. Nations exist in a "state of nature". What is it you don't understand? What does FZ think we should do with Russia, send it to bed without any supper? Put Russia in detention? Keep Russia after school? FZ, read Oliver Wendell Holmes comments at my 25 April 2008 post.

I return to 1960 and Katanga's revolt against the central Congo government in Leopoldville. The USSR backed Patrice Lumumba. Moise Tshombe, backed by Belgium and certain Western interests, led Katanga's revolt. The US airlifted a UN force into the Congo to fight for Lumumba. At times, the UN forces fought Tshombe's. The US backed another group, Joseph Kasavubu's and wanted to keep the Congo, now Zaire, intact. In 1963 the UN forces defeated Tshombe's reuniting the Congo. I remember thinking at the time: what is Ike doing? Why are we involved in a civil war on the other side of the Atlantic, fighting on what seems to be the USSR's side against our "ally" Belgium? I now add, in "reassembling" the Congo, we established a precedent opposed to our treatment of Kosovo.

Didn't look at Article 5 of NATO. Amazing.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Wither Russia

"The fact that all Russian politicians are clever. The stupid ones are all dead. By contrast, America in its complacency promotes dullards. A deadly miscommunication arises from this asymmetry. The Russians cannot believe that the Americans are as stupid as they look, and conclude that Washington wants to destroy them. ... These perceptions are dangerous because they do not stem from propaganda, but from a difference in existential vantage point. Russia is fighting for its survival, against a catastrophic decline in its population and the likelihood of a Muslim majority by mid-century. ... America's interest in Georgia, the Russians believe, has nothing more to do with promoting democracy than its support for the gangsters to whom it handed the Serbian province of Kosovo in February. ... Chess players think in terms of the interaction of pieces: everything on the periphery combines to control the center of the board and prepare an eventual attack against the opponent's king. The Russians simply cannot absorb the fact that America has no strategic intentions: it simply adds up the value of the individual pieces on the board. It is as stupid as that. ... Dull people know that clever people are cleverer than they are, but they do not know why. The nekulturny (uncultured) Colonel Ralph Peters, a former US military intelligence analyst, is impressed by the tactical success of Russian arms in Georgia, but cannot fathom the end-game to which these tactics contribute. ... If the UN demographers are correct, Russia's adult population will fall from about 90 million today to only 20 million by the end of the century. ... Russia, in other words, has passed the point of no return in terms of fertility. ... Some demographers, predict a Muslim majority in Russia by 2040, and by mid-century at the latest. ... The West has two choices: draw a line in the sand around the Ukraine, or trade it to the Russians for something more important. ... The West should do its best to pretend that the 'Orange' revolution of 2004 and 2005 never happened, and secure Russia's assistance in the Iranian nuclear issue as well as energy security in return for an understanding of Russia's existential requirements in the near abroad. Anyone who thinks this sounds cyncial should spend a week in Kiev. ... Russia has more to fear from a nuclear-armed Iran than the [US]. ... One irony of the present crisis is that Washington's neo-conservatives, by demanding a tough stance against Russia, may have harmed Israel's security interests more profoundly than any of Israel's detractors in American politics. ... If America turns Russia into a strategic adversary, the probability of Israel's survival will drop by a big notch", my emphasis, Spengler at http://www.atimes.com/, 18 August 2008.

Spengler cites the same phrases in Hanson's and Peter's work I have. I always believed the USSR's breakup in part was to take 65 million Moslems out of the Russian body politic and delay the time when the USSR would have a Moslem majority. Look at our present predicament: we may face a nuclear-armed Iran in 1-5 years. Not a pretty prospect. But down the road is a less appetizing one: a nuclear-armed Russia, with 6,500 "deliverables" and a Moslem majority! Instead of Iran leading the charge for a caliphate, Russia will. I cannot believe Czar Vladimir the Great (VTG) is unaware of this. I think VTG is a smart guy, even if he doesn't have even one Ivy League degree, unlike Bush who has two.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

IA's Presidential Endorsement: Vladimir the Great!

"If Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin were president of the [US], would Iran try to build a nuclear bomb? Would Pakistan provide covert aid to al-Qaeda? Would Hugo Chavez train terrorists in Venzuela? Would leftover nationalities with delusions of grandeur provoke the great powers? Just ask Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvilli, who now wishes he never tried to put his 4 million countrymen into strategic play. ... Thanks to Putin, the world has become a much safer place. By intervening in Georgia, Russia has demonstrated that the great powers of the world have nothing to fight about. ... Contrary to the hyperventilation of policy analysts on American news shows, the West has no vital interests in Georgia. ... It is humilating for the US to watch the Russians thrash a prospective ally, but not harmful, for Georgia should never have been an ally in the first place. The lack of consequences of Russia's incursion is a noteworthy fact, for never before in the history of the world has the world's military and economic power resided in countries whose fundamental interests do not conflict in any important way. ... Once it became clear that Russia would not tolerate a NATO member on its southern border, however, Washington had nothing to say about the matter, because no fundamental Ameriocan interests were at stake. ... After the US and its main European allies recognized the independence of Kosovo from Serbia in February 2008, Russia warned that this action set a precedent for other prospective secessions, notable South Ossetia. ... If the West is going to put itself at risk for 3.8 million ethnic Georgians, roughly the population of Los Angeles, or 5.4 million Tibetans, or 2 million Albanian Muslims in Kosovo, why shouldn't Russia take risks for the South Ossetians, not to mention the 100,000 Abkaz speakers in Georgia's secessionist Black Sea province? ... Precisely what were the 3.8 million freedom-loving Georgians supposed to contribute to American strategic interests with its $2 billion a year of exports consisting (according to the [CIA] World Factbook) of 'scrap metal, wine, mineral water, ores, vehicles, fruits and nuts'? ... If it had not been for America's insistence on installing a gang of trigger-happy pimps and drug-pushers in Kosovo, Russia might have responded less ferociously to the flea bites on its southern border .... America remains so committed to the myth of moderate Islam that it is prepared to invent it. Kosovo, like the Turkey of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, supposedly embodies a moderate, Sufi-derived brand of Islam that will foster an American partnership with the Muslim world. ... There is no 'clash of civilizations', for Confucian, Hindu, American and Orthodox civilization cannot find grounds for a clash. ... The most visible prospective spoiler in the pack remains Iran. If American wants to recover from its humilation in the Caucusus, it might, for example, conduct an air raid against Iran's nuclear facilities, and justify it with the same sort of reasoning that Russia invoked in Georgia. Contrary to the surface impressions , Moscow wouldn't mind a bit", my emphasis, Spengler at http://www.atimes.com/, 12 August 2008.
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I love this guy! Spengler for Putin's foreign minister! Not only do I not think Moscow would mind our destroying Iran's nuclear facilities, I think Russia will join in the festivities. I can see Czar Vladimir the Great (VTG) telling Bush, "there's 636,000 square miles of Iran, how many do you want"? Upon hearing this, Bush faints leaving Czar Vladimir stupefied.

Watching VTG's "romp" through Georgia reminded me of this, "One time, years ago, the veteran Baltimore newspaperman, H.L. Mencken, was checking copy coming in from the night editor and sighing at the rising number of errors he was noticing, errors of fact but also of syntax, and even some idioms that didn't sound quite right. He shook his head and said, as much to himself as to the editor at his side: 'The older I get the more I admire and crave competence, just simple competence, in any field from adultery to zoology,' Alistair Cooke, Memories of the Great and the Good", reported by George Will at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/, 3 June 2007. That includes Czardom. Viva Putin! Where can the US find one like him?

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Spengler on the Middle East

"America is stuck to the Iraqi tar baby, and becomes more entrapped the more it struggles. Iran's leverage inside Iraq, as I have warned for years, gives the Islamic republic room to bargain for its broader objectives. ... There are simply too many adherents of militant Islam to deal with the matter conveniently. Any solution today will be messy; a confrontation postponed for another half dozen years might cost eight figures' worth of lives. ... The outlook is grim, not least because the US State Department is repeating in Turkey the errors that helped bring Islamist governments to power in Iran and Pakistan. ... In advance of the November election, the Bush administration wants quiet in Iraq and quiescence in the oil market, and Tehran can help with both. That is why 'talks on Iran's nuclear program in Geneva indicated a shift of the US policy toward Iran on line with the Baker-Hamilton recommendations of 2006.' ... With all due respect to the US's military chief in Iraq and now also Central Command head, General David Peterus, diminished violence in Iraq is not due entirely to the skill of American arms. Without Iranian forbearance, the troop 'surge' would not seem as effective. ... As I wrote in October 2005 ... 'the probable outcome is that Washington will refrain from military action to forestall Iranian nuclear arms developments, while Tehran will refrain from disrupting Washington's Potemkin Village in Iraq. In this exchange, Iran gives up nothing of importance. ... What matters to Washington at the moment is Turkey's ability to create the appearance of progress in Middle Eastern diplomacy. ... The Middle East bears a strong comparison to Europe in the years before World War I. ... Israel is the only player in the region with the perspicacity and power to stop the slide towards regional war. The Jewish state may not have the capacity to eradicate Iran's nuclear development program, but it almost certainly has the means to set it back for a number of years. ... If Israel fails to act, the near-certain outcome will be a regional war on a scale dwarfing the Iran-Iraq war on the 1980s", Spengler at http://www.atimes.com/, 4 August 2008.

I love this guy. Why not? I agree with virtually every word he writes. We have no good options in the Middle East. Our troop "surge" only gave Iran "cover" to decrease the violence in Iraq temporarily. I doubt it did anything to further US interests.

Michael Rubin and John Bolton have been very critical of US policy with respect to Iran at the WSJ, 21 July and 5 August 2008. Bolton's piece is especially notable. Here's a link: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB121789278252611717.html.

Sunday, April 27, 2008

It's 1973 All Over Again

"The global food crisis is a monetary phenomenon, an unintended consequence of America's attempt to inflate its way out of a market failure. ... Washington has weakened the value of the dollar as a palliative for the credit crisis, so much that 'nobody seems to doubt that the US dollar will lose its status as the world's reserve currency,' as journalist Amity Shlaes wrote in an April 9 Bloomberg News column. ... China is exchanging its depreciating reserves of US dollars for things of value, notably rice, with frightening consequences for dependent countries, and deadly consequences for American foreign policy. ... [T]he ascent in the cost of rice to $24 from $10 per hundredweight over the past year tracks the declining value of the American dollar. ... For developing countries whose currencies track the American dollar ... this is a catastrophe. ... Never before in history has hunger become a global threat in a period of plentiful harvests. ... It is not only rice, of course, that the cash-rich countries of the world are buying as a store of value; the price of wheat, soy and other grains has risen almost as fast. The George W Bush administration might as well have used the State Department as a set for the Jackass reality show. American arrogance has eroded the ground under many of the governments on which its foreign policy depends", Spengler at http://www.atimes.com/, 21 April 2008.

Spengler strikes again. China's position is like Japan's in 1973 when Nixon embargoed the shipment of soybeans to Japan. Are US export controls coming next? See my 4, 19 and 21 February 2008 posts.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Rivers of Blood, 40 Years Hence

"Violence is oozing through the cracks of European society like pus out of a broken scab. Just when liberal opinion congratulated itself that Europe had foresaken its violent past, the specter of civil violence has the continent terrified. ... Not since [WWII] has British opinion been provoked to the present level of outrage. ... Matthew d'Ancona, quoted former Conservative parliamentarian Enoch Powell's warning that concessions to alien cultures would cause 'rivers of blood' to flow in the streets of England. Times columnist Minetter Marin accuses the archbishop of treason. Coercion in the Muslim communities of Europe is so commonplace that duly-constituted governments there no longer wield a monopoly of violence. Behind the law there stands the right of the state to inflict violence, and the legitimacy of states rests on what German political economist and sociologist Max Weber once called 'the monopoly of violence'. ... By proposing to concede a permanent role to extralegal violence in the political life of England, the Archbishop of Canterbury pushed his phelgmatic countrymen over the edge. No one is better than the British at pretending that problems aren't really there, but once their spiritual leader admits to an alien source of coercion and proposes to legitimize it, they understood that a limit had been reached. ... Europe's governments refuse to rule, that is, refuse to enforce their own laws because they fear violence on the part of Muslim immigrant communities who refuse to accept these laws... If [Europe's] duly-constituted governments abandon their monopoly of violence to self-appointed religious leaders, the likelihood is that a river of blood will flow, just as Powell warned in 1968", my emphasis, Spengler at http://www.atimes.com/, 11 February 2008.

I love Spengler, whoever he is. I remember Enoch Powell's April 1968 "Rivers of Blood" speech. You may read it at http://www.vdare.com/. The state is: violence, the opinions of many law, political science and philosophy professors to the contrary. A state which refuses to use violence to enforce its laws or defend itself against other states, ceases to be a state. Like Europeans exempting their Moslem communities from Europe's laws, our illegal aliens will push the US into a civil war or have the US break up like Yugoslavia did. Be patient, chaos is coming right here to "River City".