Saturday, December 13, 2008
"Here's the first commandment for Washington's diplomats and intelligence personnel: States and individuals act in their own rational self-interest. No matter how many times we're surprised because the rational-actor model fails us, our government continues to apply it to enemies (and allies) whose actions are driven by passions, fears, resentments, jealousy and rage. ... Airliners crashing into the World Trade Center towers and antique Russian bombers stalking U.S. carriers frustrate analysts who are convinced that all actions by states, or even by terrorist organizations, are the result of rational calculation. ... History is dense with examples of tribes and empires, dictators and popular movements acting in ways that gave them short-term emotional satisfaction but ultimately cost them terribly. ... Remaining in the Holy Land, but leaping forward a millenium, it should have been apparent to Arab states and the Palestinians after 1967--at latest--1973--that it was in their rational self-interest to come to an accomodation with Israel. Yet the idea of doing so was emotionally unbearable. Only Egypt, bankrupt and desperate, pursued a limited peace. President Sadat, who signed the treaty, was assassinated. ... Why is it so hard, in the face of overwhelming counterevidence, to get Washington's elite to abandon the rational self-interest model of interpreting the world? Because the diplomats and analysts have an emotional stake in denying the force of emotion", my emphasis, Ralph Peters (RP) at Armchair General, January 2009.
RP should study Islam. Islam prohibits peace with non-Muslims. It permits Hudnas, truces with them, not to exceed ten years. Condoleezza Rice, take note. Most Americans know virtually nothing of: India, Israel and Islam, among other things. Islam has a "Brezhnev Doctrine", i.e., if an area was controlled by Islam, it must always be controlled by Islam. Spain is learning this to its chagrin. Having thrown the Moors out in 1492, Spain began admitting Moslems after Francisco Franco died in 1975. Now Spain has 500,000 Moslems in its 46 million population. Oh, and Spain has an Islamic irredentist movement looking to reverse the "Tragedy of Andalus", 1492's Moslem expulsion! In 1971 India attacked then East Pakistan (EP). I ignored it in 1971. It was across the Pacific, who cared? The Pakistani army killed about 2.4 million Hindus and 500,000 Moslems in about nine months. India intervened to end the slaughter after 8-10 million refugees entered India from then EP. A 2.9 million person holocaust, which you probably never heard of. Aurangzeb, 1618-1707, had 10,000 Hindus a day beheaded for a year, 1680, 3,650,000 in all. Another obscure holocaust. From the first Mogul invasion of India, 711, until today, most estimates are: Moslems killed 70-80 million Hindus. Hitler and his 5.1 million Jews; nothing; Stalin and 10-12 million Ukies, nothing. We are fed "experts" on Islam like Karen Armstrong, a Saudi tool in my opinion. Learn on your own. Some day, when I feel ambitious, I may prepare a post on Indian negationism. What?