Friday, November 7, 2008

New Indicator?

"As stock markets headed off a cliff again last week, closely followed by currencies, and as meltdown threatened entire countries such as Hungary and Iceland, one voice was in demand above all others to steer us through the gloom: that of Dr. Doom. ... But after making a series of uncannily accurate predictions about the global meltdown, Roubini has become the prophet of his age, jetting around the world dispensing his advice and latest prognostications to politicians and businessmen desperate to know what happens next--and for any answer to the crisis. ... Dubbed Dr. Doom for his gloomy views, this lugubrious disciple of the 'dismal science' is now the world's most in-demand economist. ... Contacted in Madrid on Friday, Roubini said the world economy was 'at a breaking point'. He believes the stock markets are now 'essentially in free fall' and 'we are reaching the point of sheer panic'. ... While the public might be impressed by Nostradamus-like predictions, economists want figures and equations. ... Anirvan Banerji, economist with the New York-based Economic Cycle Research Institute, ... questioned Roubini's assumptions, said they were not based on mathematical models and dismissed his hunches as those of a Cassandra", my emphasis, Dominic Rushe at the Times (London), 26 October 2008,

It's strange how the world works. Now that Nouriel Roubini is in demand, the next bull market may have started. This article may be 2008's Businessweek 13 August 1979 article, "Death of Equities". Imagine, Banerji wants "mathematical models". What his problem? Doesn't he understand they should be relegated to alchemy? Banerji should enroll at Columbia and take its Contemporary Civilization course. He might be exposed to Greek Mythology. My recollection of Cassandra was that she was right, but not believed! Does Banerji envy Roubini? It looks that way to me. As it is written, "Pride goes before destruction, And a haughty spirit before a fall", Proverbs 16:18 (NKJV).


Anonymous said...

Models are for girlie men.

Anonymous said...

You're just quoting the New York Times's puff piece on Roubini. If you looked at the actual transcript of what Banerji said (, you'd find he said practically none of the things you highlight, including dismissing Roubini as a Cassandra or anything about mathematical models. Shouldn't you be more skeptical, Mr. CPA, of quotes repeated by bloggers who've copied the NY Times verbatim, before casting broad aspersions?