Tuesday, December 9, 2008
"The world faces mounting uncertainty and escalating costs on the energy front in the years ahead, as companies scramble to find new pockets of oil and squeeze more production from aging fields, the International Energy Agency [IEA] says in a largely gloomy annual report. ... To keep abreast of rising energy demand and decrepit infrastructure, companies will have to invest over $26 trillion between now and 2030, with over half of that going to increased power generation and distribution. ... Rising demand and production declines in existing fields will require oil companies to add 64 million barrels a day in capacity over the next 22 years, more than six times Saudi Arabia's current production. Nearly half of that will be needed in the next eight years, the report notes", Neil King And Spencer Swartz at the WSJ, 7 November 2008.
"Production at the world's oil fields will decline faster in coming years, putting more pressure on future oil supplies, the [IEA] said on Wednesday. ... The Paris-based watchdog, which represents the interests of energy-consuming nations, made its prediction in a detailed analysis of 800 of the world's oil fields--the first report of its kind. Its conclusions are likely to deepen the pessimism about the long-term oil supply that is taking root among some oil executives, economists and market analysts. ... Oil and gas firms are putting off major projects and curbing capital spending amid plunging crude prices and a slowdown that has slashed demand for oil ... 'When demand starts to pick up, say in 2010, if the current investment plans are postponed we may see a supply crunch that is much stronger than what we saw last year, and prices that are much higher,' said Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist and leader of the field analysis", Guy Chazan at the WSJ, 14 November 2008.
I don't see how current, $44 a barrel, oil prices can be sustained.
Birol could be right.