Wednesday, April 1, 2009

California Real Estate Update-6

"California's mortgage crisis hit this [Mountain House] master-planned community particularly hard last year, and eventually 90% of mortgage holders here owed more than their homes were worth. ... The 2,600 existing homes in this development 60 miles east of San Francisco are selling at nearly three times last year's pace. ... No one wants to call a bottom in Mountain House after what happened. ... California homes were on the market an average of 6.7 months in January, compared with 16.6 months in January 2008, the Realtors association said. ... Few economists say California's housing debacle is over, and things could get much worse. .... The median home price in California fell 57% to $254,350 in January from $594,530 in May 2007, and prices continue to drop in many areas", Jim Carlton at the WSJ, 21 March 2009.

The long slide in California real estate prices is near an end. I expect them to bottom by 2009's fourth quarter.


Svend said...

In my opinion, that is optimistic. There has been a great deal of capacity added in California, and an aggregate decrease in wealth. Even the 2001 prices brought into the current market, are excessive.

Anonymous said...

If the "skeptical" one believes it then it's probably a pretty good call...

Bottom's up!