Sunday, September 13, 2009
"The rally has investors giddy with excitement. Frankly, I'm a bit baffled by it all. Everywhere I look I see ominous signs. ... It's ugly out there. That said, as a contrarian at heart I see great opportunities in this tough environment. ... Instead of trying to time your next buys and sells, think about what is going to happen over the next decade and how you will cope with it. You should be thinking about the purchasing power of the dollar. We are likely to run into a period of wild inflation, at least as bad as what we had from 1979 to 1981. ... Why the dire outlook? Simply because our Treasury and its counterparts in other countries are printing money around the clock. They are also printing bonds, and with the same objective: reviving stagnant economies. ... No democratic government could stay in power these days if it didn't undertake countermeasures against unemployment, the possibility of deflation, and the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. It is inevitable that all this stimulus will be followed at some point by a period of rapidly rising prices. ... Treasury Secretary Geithner and Fed boss Bernanke are trapped by politics and events. They make pronouncements downplaying the inflation threat, but inflation will hit like a tsunami within the next three years, maybe sooner. What to do to defend yourself? Buy stocks, buy real estate and sell bonds. ... Reposition your portfolio with heavier weightings in oil, natural resources and cyclical stocks, while cutting back on utilities and consumer staples", my emphasis, David Dreman (DD) at Forbes, 7 September 2009.
I agree with DD and add, get gold. Real estate's appeal is: you can buy it with a fixed-rate mortgage and in effect use it to short sell the dollar.