Jesse at Jesse's Cafe Americain has an interesting 10 October 2009 post on what's driving equity prices today. He presents cases for deflation, stagflation and implosion. I favor the stagflation scenario like the 1970s, but with higher peak inflation rates than 1979's 13%, say 25-30% in this cycle. Here's a link: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/10/speculative-bubble-in-equities-and-case.html. Jesse likens Wall Street to a group of third world warlords. I've compared it to a bunch of mafia families running an extortion racket.
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5 comments:
25-30% wow.
Hope not. I know that is not analysis. That would be crushing.
Not the time to buy fixed rate debt. What is the hard asset of choice?
Anonymous 1:
Why do you think the US will not follow Great Britain? If I recollect properly, in about 1979 the UK recorded a 27% inflation rate.
Anonynous 2:
One ounce gold coins.
Anonymous:
The official UK CPI inflation rates were: 16.0%, 24.2%, 16.5% and 15.8% for 1974-77. Source: http://www.whatsthecost.com/historic.cpi.aspx
Casey Serin should be executed.
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