Sunday, March 7, 2010

BusinessWEAK vs. Pat Buchanan

"They are called the PIGS--Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain. What they have in common is that all are facing deficits and debts that could bring on national defaults and break up the European Union [EU]. Who brought the PIGS to the edge of the abyss? All are neo-socialist states that provde welfare for poor people, generous unemployment, universal health care, early retirement and comfortable pensions. Most consume 40 percent to 50 percent of their gross domestic product annually, a crushing burden on the private sector. ... For 30 years, the fertility rate of Europe has been below the 2.1 children per woman necessary to replace a population. In Russia and Ukraine, a million people disappear yearly. In Western Europe, the passing of the native-born goes on quietly, as Third World peoples come to fill the empty spaces left by the aborted and unconceived. ... These newcomers have neither the education nor the skills of the Europeans. Hence, they earn less and contribute less in taxes, but consume more per capita in social benefits. ... Thus the burden of pensions and health care grows steadily and the need for higher taxes and larger worker contributions increases. ... Greece is the first European nation to hit the wall. ... The EU'c crisis would then be like a crisis in the [US] should California default on its state bonds and interest rates on other municipal bonds surged to double digits. ... In every Western nation, government is growing beyond the capacity of taxpayers to bear", my emphasis, Pat Buchanan at Vdare, 9 February 2010, link:

"The [EU's] experiment with a single currency is deep in crisis because Europe failed to learn from the Greeks. ... Today's Sirens are the investors and traders of the global bond market, who lure nations into tapping abundant credit at low rates when times are good. ... Greece has fallen into precisely that trap. It got low-interest loans by promising to behave responsibily and keep its budget deficit low. ... At this point, Greece and the [EU] have no good choices left. It's hard to see how Greece can muddle through on its own. ... Yiannis Kelekis, 68, a retired construction worker who joined a demonstration in rainy Athens, complained: 'The people that caused the crisis are now asking for others to make sacrifices.' ... If the EU] refuses aid, the government could find itself unable to issue $26 billion worth of debt as scheduled this spring. ... Trouble is, extending aid isn't a great choice, either. ... For now, investors are pouring money into the US Treasury market as a safe refuge. ... When Greece joined the euro zone, its borrowing costs fell to near-German levels because bond investors bought into the theory that Greece had finally become fiscally responsible. ... According to economists Kenneth S. Rogoff of Harvard University and Carmen M. Reinhart of the University of Maryland, Greece has been in default for half of the time since it won independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1829. ... Greece and the EU wouldn't be in this no-win situation if they had followed their own rules from the start. But coming up with a failsafe mechanism that forces sovereign nations to do what's right when they feel like cheating is pretty much impossible", my emphasis, Peter Coy (PC) at Businessweek, 22 February 2010: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_08/b4167018421438.htm.

Gary North's (GN) 17 February 2010 post at Lew Rockwell is about the PIGS: http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north814.html. GN asks, "How wise is to to lend to wicked people? Not very". Consider what this implies for Treasury paper.

Obamacare anyone? California anyone? What's controversial about this?

PC is PC. He never suggests Greece reduce spending. Anyone who buys sovereign debt does it at his peril. The article was titled, "The Bond Vigilantes Who Left Greece in Ruins". Imagine, the bond market did it, not Greek government spending. Failsafe mechanism? Try the gold standard. "Lure nations"? Is Greece a naive 14-year old girl being seduced by Casanova?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oh I don't know... government officials come and go... mostly weak, unknowing types...

The finances of a state are often best understood by the banks that are the kind uncle of longstanding to the sovereign...

So yes maybe a gold standard is a necessary discipline... hmmm.

Jr Deputy Accountant said...

Don't you know it's ALWAYS the dirty banks' fault? Or in this case, the dirty bond markets. Hahahahaha that's hilarious. Just like it is low-income, unqualified debtors' fault that the housing bubble got so horribly out of control after they gorged themselves on easy money.

Down go the dominoes...

Then again, if a crackhead kills someone, who do you blame? The crack dealer or the crackhead?