Friday, April 23, 2010
Bulls and Bears
"John Tammy, the editor of RealClearMarkets.com, a Forbes.com columnist and a monetarist in the fashion of Milton Friedman, thinks GDP is a flawed number. It's expressed in an unreliable measure--the US dollar. Expressed in gold, GDP has been contracting for eight years. Richard Koo, chief economist for Nomura Research Institute, says the US is in a balance sheet recession, marked by deflation and deleveraging that will crimp investing and spending for a decade or more. ... Harvard financial historian and author Niall Ferguson says debt-laden America is past its glory but will try to mask its decline by inflating away its debt. ... However, maybe what this is telling us is that the biggest economic and market surprises of this decade could be on the upside", Rick Karlgaard (RK) at Forbes, 12 April 2010:
RK gives a "seven-band spectrum of bears to bulls". I am in his most bearish group, which includes "bloggers too numerous to mention here". However, as inflation panic engulfs the US I expect a Misean "crack-up boom" and apparent prosperity. Before the collapse. I agree with Koo, the US dollar is a unreliable measure.