Thursday, June 24, 2010
"At 8:30 AM on Friday , June 4, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its much anticipated monthly jobs report. ... The jobless rate decreased only because hundreds of thousands of people became so discouraged, they dropped out of the workforce. ... There is just one problem: these numbers are wrong. They always are. The jobs numbers are revised each month and then again in subsequent years. Sometime later this year, we may learn that twice as many jobs were lost in May as we thought or that, actually, hundreds of thousands more were created. ... If you examine almost any government statistic or calculation more closely, you will find that it is a guesstimate. ... On almost every level, we are making national economic policy on the basis of problematic data and inadequate models. ... We need better models, and we need them urgently", Zachary Karabell at Time, 21 June 2010, link:
I draw a different conclusion. We should stop trying to control the economy. Let it cycle by itself. Recognize there is no statistic we can collect which will give us the magic lever with which to ensure economic stability. It is human arrogance that leads our experts to think they can control anything.