"Output from the world's exisitng oil fields is declining at a rate of about 4.5% a year, a new study concludes, meaning oil producers will have to find new production of 3.8 million barrels a day this year just to stay even. ... Yet the study's authors, Boston-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates [CERA], argue that their assessment supports a generally rosy view of the industry's future, given that new projects in the works will make up for the decline. ... The study strikes a more optimistic tone that do many heavy hitters in the industry", WSJ, 17 January 2008.
I think the CERA decline estimate optimistic. Time will tell. Oil's future demand growth will largely come from India and China.