Sunday, January 11, 2009
"For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument--that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and an eventual breakup of the U.S.--very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media. ... Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations. ... Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into seperate territories. ... 'There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur,' he says. 'One could rejoice in that process,' he adds, poker-faced. 'But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario--for Russia.' ... Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces--with Alaska reverting back to Russian control. ... Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia ... and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. 'Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people,' says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water. ... [Panarin] predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in. ... Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt 'a pyramid scheme,' and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator", my emphasis, Andrew Osborn at the WSJ, 29 Decmeber 2008.
Laugh if you want. I take Panarin seriously. I can't see the US breaking into six pieces. Texas will not revert to Mexico. We're too well armed for that. But California might. I think Panarin decades early for a civil war, see my 6 September 2008 post: http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2008/09/coming-civil-war.html. He uses the term "pyramid scheme". So have I. I see the same demographic disaster Panarin does. No, a weakened US is not in Russia's interest with China next door. A dollar collapse is possible. Rogov's comments are interesting. Did Rogov say the USSR would break up in say, 1989? See also my 2 November 2007 post: http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2007/11/oil-and-bing-crosby.html. In 1776 how many people thought the Colonists would defeat England?