Sunday, January 11, 2009


"For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument--that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and an eventual breakup of the U.S.--very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media. ... Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations. ... Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into seperate territories. ... 'There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur,' he says. 'One could rejoice in that process,' he adds, poker-faced. 'But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario--for Russia.' ... Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces--with Alaska reverting back to Russian control. ... Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia ... and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. 'Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people,' says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water. ... [Panarin] predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in. ... Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt 'a pyramid scheme,' and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator", my emphasis, Andrew Osborn at the WSJ, 29 Decmeber 2008.

Laugh if you want. I take Panarin seriously. I can't see the US breaking into six pieces. Texas will not revert to Mexico. We're too well armed for that. But California might. I think Panarin decades early for a civil war, see my 6 September 2008 post: He uses the term "pyramid scheme". So have I. I see the same demographic disaster Panarin does. No, a weakened US is not in Russia's interest with China next door. A dollar collapse is possible. Rogov's comments are interesting. Did Rogov say the USSR would break up in say, 1989? See also my 2 November 2007 post: In 1776 how many people thought the Colonists would defeat England?


Printfaster said...

Not so much.

The Mexicans here hate Mexico, especially the new generation. What could alter their view is extreme poverty setting in. Then the barrio mentality sets in, and the community organizers take over.

Still the US has weathered many large immigrant groups setting up ghettos and eventually melting away.

It is time for the US to begin to control its borders given the extreme levels of violence in Mexico where more have been killed in the last year over drugs than have been killed in Iraq. Perhaps the Russians should send in a multi-national force to Mexico to bring the country to democracy.

Independent Accountant said...

Having lived in Los Angeles (LA) from 1985-2005, I can tell you Mexican irredentism there is strong. LA's mayor, Antonio Villaragosa (AV) is known locally as "Reconquista". AV is a "former" member of La Raza. My experience with Mexicans in LA is that the majority want to see some sort of "condominium" arrangement over California, in which they hold all the political power and extract taxes from the Anglos. Follow California's current budget crisis. What's really going on there? How much longer will California be part of the US anyway? In many areas, like parts of Orange County and the San Joaquin Valley, no English is spoken.
Why would the Russians want to get involved with Mexico? To reduce drug-related violence, I would end the drug war. Legalize everything: marijuana, cocaine, heroin, you name it. Collateral benefit: we put the Afghanistani drug lords out of business and put a crimp in the Jihadis finances.

Anonymous said...

It is a radical thought (although not improbable) that the dollar would collapse...

No telling what would happen... I think how California is dealing with their problems is an interesting example... is anything really changing in CA? Not so much...

(funny I wrote this andfeel asleep IA)

Printfaster said...

The Mexican families that I run into, want nothing to do with Mexico. It is the barrio crowd that seeks closer ties to Mexico. Those are poor people who hate prosperity and want free services and cheap gas, Pemex.

Actually, if Mexico took over CA it would be an improvement. They would dispense with all the silly environmental laws and get on with building the economy.

The fools now in charge only care about the temperature of their brie. BANANA (build absolutely nothing anywhere near anything) have taken over, but would be run out of town if Mexico took over.

I guess the model of California will be the gringo barrios found in Mexico. You can go freely through various blocks in Mexico City. You do not dare step outside. Funny how that works. Gated communities are the presage of a Mexican takeover. Think tall walls around your house.

Hmm, I am starting to like the idea of a Mexican takeover and I live in CA.