Tuesday, February 9, 2010
WSJ Slips Up
"America's population growth makes it a notable outlier among the advanced industrialized countries. The country boasts a fertility rate 50% higher than that or Russia, Germany or Japan and well above that of China, Italy, Singapore, North Korea and virtually all of eastern Eurpoe. Add to that the even greater impact of continued large-scale immigration to America from around the world. By the year 2050, the US population will swell by roughly 100 million, and the country's demographic vitality will drive its economic resilience in the coming decades. This places the US is a radically different position from that of its historic competitors, particularly Europe and Japan, whose populations are stagnant. The contrast between the US and Russia, America's onetime primary rival for world power, is particularly dramatic. ... Today, even with its energy riches, Russia's low birth and high mortality rates suggest that its population will drop to less than one-third of that of the US by 2050. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has spoken of 'the serious threat of turning into a decaying nation.' ... The differing demographic trajectories create a diverse set of issues for 21st-century American than those facing its rivals. The key challenges the European Union, Japan and Korea will contend with in the coming decades involve coping with a rapidly aging population, filling labor shortages and finding ways to invest in growing economies. In contrast, the US's greatest priority will be to create opportunities for its ever-expanding population. ... Entrepreneuralism and America's flexible business culture--including the harnessing of entrepreneurial skills of aging baby boomers--will be critical to meeting this challenge. ... You can see this in the resurgence of once-declining Great Plains cities like Fargo, ND, where high-tech now joins agriculture and manufacturing to form one of the country's strongest local economies. Or you can visit the emerging immigrant hotbeds, such as the San Gabriel Valley east of Los Angeles or the Sugarland area, just west of Houston, withg their plethora of new churches, temples, companies and ethnic shiopping malls. ... The millennials also will help shape an increasingly culturally diverse Amerca which by 2050 will be roughly half made up of ethnic minorities. This emerging post-ethnic future contrasts dramatically with the ethnic politics common among the nation's chief global rivals. ... The very diversity of the emerging America makes many wonder what ultimately will hold the country together", my emphasis, Joel Kotkin (JK) at the WSJ, 23 January 2010, link:
The pro-immigration WSJ outdid itself here. To answer one of JK's questions, the US likely will fall apart as Igor Panarin wrote, my 11 January 2009 post: http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2009/01/usa-rip.html.
America's growth is no outlier compared to third world countries. The 2050 US of 408 million, will include about 125 million Hispanics. JK's growth is not the US's, but Mexico north of the Rio Grande. Look at what "growth" did to California since 1970. "Demographic vitality", means what? Look at say Santa Ana, CA. Is it a vital enough city? The San Gabriel Valley and Sugarland are both full of NAMs, largely Chinese, not Mexican! If you want some wonderful Chinese seafood, go to Monterey Park, CA. Why worry about finding an increasing population jobs? Why let it increase? American Caucasians total fertility rate is about 1.85, higher than Russia, but less that the 2.11 "replacement level". What is JK talking about? JK's choice of Fargo is revealing. Fargo is 94% Caucasian reports Wikipedia. Am I racist to note that? I agree, JK, the US now has a new group of peer countries: Mexico, Argentina, Somalia and Afghanistan.